巴黎银行-哥伦比亚-宏观经济-哥伦比亚：处于降息边缘

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1、Colombia:OnthecuttingedgeAuthor:Wereaffirmourlong-heldbelowconsensusforecastofa4.0%2018monetarypolicyrate.LuizEduardoPeixotoCPIshoulddipbelow3.5%byQ1,allowingtheexpansionarypushtobeintensified.EconomistBancoBNPParibasBrasilSAStickynon-tradableinflation

2、shouldeasewithsofterindexationforces,albeitaboveheadline.WecontinuetoseepolicyAsinflationdropsandeconomicactivitystayssubdued,wekeepseeingratesmovinglower.InratesedginglowerAugust,weloweredourforecastforend-2018policyrateto4.0%(pleaseseeColombia'sinflatio

3、n:Downandsideways),thenbelowconsensus,andnowreiteratethisview.Ourbaselinescenarioisforthreeback-to-back25bpcuts,startinginMarch,whenBanRepshouldhavedetailsfromtheFebruaryCPIprint–forecastbyustodipbelow3.5%y/y(seeChart1).JustaquestionoftimeRisksforacutinJa

4、nuaryexist.HeadlineCPIwouldlikelyhaveended2017withintargetrange,beforethenextcuthaditnotbeenfortheone-offsoccermatchinBogotá(whichaloneaddedaround10bptoinflation),andcoresubgroupswould’vedropped.Moreover,mediumterminflationexpectationsremainanchoredanditi

5、sexpectedthattheupcomingactivityreleaseswillremainsubdued.Againstthisbackdrop,weexpectBanRep’sdecisiontobeadividedone–arecurringfeaturefromlastyear.End-2017CPIfinishedHowever,analysingthethinkingappliedinrecentmeetings,wedon’texpectBanReptocutinabovetarge

6、trange…theJanuarymeeting.Besidesthesurpriseintheheadlinenumber,mostcoresubgroupsalsorose,rulingoutthejustificationforcuts.RecentratedecisionswerebasedaroundmarginalchangestoCPIandexpectationsnumbers(morethanlevelsperse),accentuatedornotbydeviationsofecono

7、micactivitydatafromtheboard’scentralscenario.…butsharplybelowearlyWehighlightthat2017CPInumberssurprisedtothedownside,finishingsignificantlybelowyearforecastsforecastsdoneearlyintheyear–includingourown.Thisallowsforthecurrentdovishstancetocontinueinthecen

8、tralbank’swordings,albeitsomecautionmightarisefromuncertaintitiesoverstickycorecomponents.For2018,weexpectinflationtocloseataround3.5%,stayinglowerthanthatmostoftheyear.BanRepshouldintensifyThesubstantialreliefinthe