巴黎银行-哥伦比亚-宏观形势-哥伦比亚：选举追踪

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1、COLOMBIA:ELECTIONTRACKERFEBRUARY2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconBREAKINGNEWS:ARIGHT-WINGCOALITIONFORMS,THELEFTSPLITS“PRO-PEACE”ALLIANCEFORMED;LEADINGINPOLLS,FAJARDO’sONTHERIGHT,TWOFORMERLEFTDIVIDESBUTPETRORISESCOALITIONRELEASEDITSPLATFORMPRESIDENT

2、SJOINACOALITIONFormerpresidentsAlvaroUribeandGustavoPetro,whorattleslocalFormerMedellínmayorSergioAndrésPastranahavejoinedforcesinmarkets,hasbeenonanupwardFajardohasbeenleadingthepolls,ndaright-of-centrecoalition,including:trend,judgingbymostrecentpollsincluding2roundscenar

3、iosConservativeMartaLucíaRamirez,twoNDtimespresidentialcandidateCLICKHEREFORMOSTRECENTPOLLSCLICKHEREFOR2ROUNDPOLLSYoungSenatorIvánDuque,whowaschosenHistermsasgovernorofAntioquiahadbyUribe’sCentroDemocraticopartyPeaceprocessnegotiator,centristhighapprovalratings,althoughhe

4、AlejandroOrdoñez,acontroversialright-HumbertoDelaCalle,hasjoinedincreaseddebtlevelsabovelimitswingfigureforceswithleft-of-centreClaraLópezFajardohasastrongopinionvoteMrs.Ramirez,SenatorIvánDuque,LópezexitedGustavoPetro’scampaignHiseconomicpoliciesarenotyetandOrdoñezwillbec

5、ompetinginaDelaCalle,amemberofthecurrentconcrete,butherecentlypledgedtostickprimaryduringtheelectionstoSantosadministration,hasdefendedthewithprudentmacroeconomicpoliciesCongress,onMarch11currentmacroeconomicstanceCLICKHEREFORASUMMARYOFEARLYCLICKHEREFORASUMMARYOFTHEPOLICYCLIC

6、KHEREFORTHEVOTINGINTENTIONSOFPOLICYPROPOSALSPROPOSALSBYFAJARDO’SCOALITIONTHEPASTRANA-URIBECOALITIONSources:Semana,ElNuevoSiglo,BNPParibas.February5,2018

7、2CONTENTSThisisaninteractivemenu.Clickontheboxesto010203navigatethroughthefile04POLLSGENERALINFOBIOS&PARTIESHISTORICALSERIES

8、•BYCANDIDATE•CALENDAR+SYSTEMCOALITIONSOVERVIEW+CANDIDACIESSTATUS•PRESIDENTAPPROVAL•BYPARTY•POLITICALSPECTRUM•NATIONALUNITY•VARGASLLERAS•CURRENTCONGRESS•CONGRESS•PARTYPLATFORMS•FAJARDO+GREENS•DEMOCRATICCENTRE•POLLSINPAST•LIKELIHOOD•GUSTAVOPETROPOTENTIALCANDIDATESELECTIONS•CAND

9、IDATESWEBSITES•VOTERPROFILE+SOCIALMEDIAPAGES•LIBERAL•CONSERVA