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1、BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERJANUARY2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconVOTESTRANSFERENCE:SCENARIOWITHOUTLULA(1STROUND)MostofLula’svoterslookundecidedwithLulaoutoftherace,butsomevoterswouldmigratetoothercandidates,likeMarinaSilva(REDE),CiroGomes(
2、PDT)andGeraldoAlckmin(PSDB).Votingintentionsforpresidentialelection(%)+14.0Undecided,18.032.0null&blankScenarioScenario+3.0withLulawithoutLulaGeraldo6.59.5Alckmin(PSDB)+5.0CiroGomes6.511.5(PDT)+5.5MarinaSilva9.014.5(REDE)+2.0JairBolsonaro17.019.0(PSL)05101520253035(
3、*)Minimumandmaximumvaluesofvotingintentionarecalculatedbytheaveragebetweenbestandworstvotingintentionineachscenario(withLulaandwithoutLula)Source:Datafolha,BNPParibasJanuary31,2018
4、2VOTINGINTENTIONSFORPRESIDENT(2NDROUND)IfLuladoesnotrun,MarinaSilva(REDE),Bolsonaro(
5、PSL),Alckmin(PSDB)andCiroGomes(PDT)couldruninthe2ndRound,accordingtothelastpolls(%)3432Wouldyou(%)5553novotein48someone3837former3531Alckmin(PSDB)Bolsonaro(PSL)president29262627maybeLula2321indicates?1717yesOct/13Apr/14Sep/17Nov/17Jan/18Jan/18(%)(%)37494746353434344
6、2333231323229Alckmin(PSDB)292827MarinaSilva(REDE)CiroGomes(PDT)Bolsonaro(PSL)Apr/17Jun/17Sep/17Nov/17Jan/18Jun/17Sep/17Nov/17Jan/18Source:Datafolha,BNPParibasJanuary31,2018
7、3BOLSONARO(PSL)–WHOISHE?Bolsonaro,JairMessiasBolsonaroisaformerarmyofficer.Hehasbeenamemberth
8、eChamberofDeputiessince1991.Bolsonarowasthemost-votedcongressmaninthestateofRiodeJaneiroin2014.Bolsonarohasbeenknownforcontroversialviewsonsocialissues,andisoftendescribedinthemediaaspro-gun,anti-gay.whoBolsonaroisconsideredtobeanoutsiderpre-candidate.Recentspontane
9、ousandsimulatedvotingintentionpollsshowhisnameasastrongpotentialcandidateforthesecondround.?HehasthehighestnumberoflikesonFacebook.amongpre-candidates,withstrongviewsonissueslikeguncontrol,prisonriotsorgayrights.Afterchangingpartyaffiliationseveraltimesovertheyears,
10、recentOverviewnewsindicatesthatBolsonarowouldberunningwiththePSL•Oftendescribedasaright-wingextremist(LiberalSocialParty)-stillasmallparty
