巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：审判lula

《巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：审判lula》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Brazil:Lula’strialTheAppealscourtisscheduledtodecideonMrLula’scorruptionconvictionon24January.Authors:Iftheconvictionisunanimouslyupheld(3x0),LulawouldlikelybebarredfromrunningintheGustavoArrudapresidentialrace.Incaseofadividedverdict(2x1),uncertaintiescouldcontinue.EconomistBancoBNPPariba

2、sBrasilSAWehavecreatedaflowchartwiththemainpotentialoutcomesandconsequences.AppealsCourttojudgeonTheAppealsCourt(TRF-4)isscheduledtoreviewon24JanuarythecorruptionconvictionofLula’scaseon24JanuaryformerpresidentLula.Iftheconvictionisupheld,accordingtolaw,thenLulawouldbeoutofthepresidentialra

3、ce.LulawasearlierfoundguiltyofmoneylaunderingandpassivecorruptionchargesbyJudgeSergioMoroinaninvestigationrelatedtothecarwashscandal.ApanelofthreejudgeswillreviewJudgeMoro’sdecision.Theywillnotonlydecideonthecasebutalsoonthesentence.TheAppealsCourt’sdecisionwouldbemadeasfollows:first,therepo

4、rtingjudge(chosentoreviewJudgeMoro’sdecision)willspeakandvote;second,thereviewingjudgewilldeliverhisspeechandvote;andfinally,thethirdjudgecouldgiveafinalcommentandvote.Theverdictwouldbeannouncedthesameday,thoughthereisnosettime.Theverdictaswellasthescore(unanimous,ornot),arerelevantfortheupc

5、omingelection.Scenario1(likely):guilty,Threescenarioscanbedrawn(seealsotheflowchartinthenextpage):unanimousvote(3x0)1Scenario1(highprobability1):Unanimousguiltydecision(3x0).Inthiscase,Lulawouldnotbeabletorunasacandidate,evenifappealingtothesuperiorcourts.Theformerpresidentalsohaslimitedopti

6、onstodelaytheeffectivenessofthejudgement.Thedefencecanaskforclarificationaboutthedecision,aprocessthatusuallytakesonlyabout20days.Incaseofadisagreementamongthejudgesaboutthelengthofthesentence,theguiltyverdictwillhold,butthedefencecanaskforabroadreassessmentofthesentencebutnotoftheverdict("e

7、mbargosinfringentes"asitisknowninjudicialtermsinBrazil).Thisprocessrequeststheopinionofthreeotherjudgesonapanelofsix(thesamethreewhoarrivedatthedecision,plusthreeothers).Insuchascenario,thefinaldecisionmighttakeplaceinaboutsixmonths,buttheverdictwo