巴黎银行-巴西-利率市场-巴西利率：削减到6%-20170906-brazil’s rates cutting our call to 6％-handle--bnp paribas

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1、Brazil’srates:Cuttingourcallto6%-handleAuthors:Ourterminalpolicyinterestratecallof7.0%wasoncebold,butisnowquitepopular.MarceloCarvalhoHeadofEmergingMarketThatisconcerning:whilewelovebecomingconsensus,wehatebeingconsensus.Research,LatamBancoBNPParibasBrasilSAWearenowcuttingourterminalratecallto6

2、.5%.GustavoArrudaEconomistInMay2016,weradicallychangedourforecastsinlightofachangeingovernment.Ourend-BancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.2017interestratecallof9%atthetimewasmetwithmuchscepticism(pleasesee,Brazil:AndOuronce-boldterminalnowforsomethingcompletelydifferent).Sincethen,themarketconsensusforecasth

3、assteadilyOur7%ratecallisnowdriftedourway.Infact,havingbeenchasedbyconsensus,wesubsequentlycutourterminalpopularratecallto8%(pleasesee,Brazil’srates:Aimlower)andthento7%(pleasesee,Brazil’srates:Themagnificentseven).Again,ouronce-boldratecallisnowquitepopular(Chart1).ForBrazil’sterminalpolicyThatco

4、ncernsus.Whilewelovebecomingconsensus,wehatebeingconsensus.InAugust,rate,nowsixisinthemixwehadwarnedthatrisksaroundour7%ratecallwerebiasedtothedownside(nottheupside),andthatwewouldnotbesurprisediftheterminalpolicyrateinthecurrentmonetaryeasingcyclereacheda6%handle(pleasesee,Brazil’srates:Sixinthem

5、ix).Atthattime,wehadstopedshortofcuttingourratecall,givenlingeringpoliticaluncertainties.WearecuttingourNow,however,wehaveaclearerpictureand,consideringthecentralbank’slatestpolicyterminalratecallto6.5%communication,webelieveitistimetobepickupourforecastingtentonceagainandpitchitevenlower.Wenowthi

6、nkBrazil’spolicyinterestratewillfallintothe6%-handleduringthecurrentmonetaryeasingcycle.Thus,wearecuttingourterminalpolicyinterestratecallto6.5%fromourprevious7.0%.WeseestrongcyclicalInordertogaugetheroleplayedbycyclicalfactorsindeterminingBrazil’spolicyrate,wehavereasonsforratestodropestimatedeco

7、nometricallyaTaylorruleforBrazil.ItshowsBrazil’sexpectedmonetarypolicyreactionfunctioninresponsetotheoutputgap(growthdeviationsfrompotential)aswellastotheinflationgap(deviationsofinflationexpectationsfromofficial