巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：2018年选举路线图-20171110-bnp_paribas-brazil2018_election_roadmap

《巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：2018年选举路线图-20171110-bnp_paribas-brazil2018_election_roadmap》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Brazil:2018electionroadmapItisstillearlydaysfortheOctober2018election,butpoliticaljockeyinghasalreadybegun.Author:Weexpectvolatilityduringthecampaign,butassumeaconstructiveoutcomeasabaseGustavoArrudacasescenario.Inparticular,wethinktheimprovingeconomyshouldsupportcurrentpolicies.Econ

2、omistBancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.Themainriskscenariowouldfeaturetwoextremecandidatesgoingtotherunoff.Eveninthatcase,thecongressionalpartycompositionlookslikelytoshifttowardscentre-right.CampaignseasonisThepresidentialelectionisgainingattentionandwilllikelybeacentralthemenextyear.Whilebeg

3、inningtoheatuppresidentialcandidatesarenotyetdetermined,weexpecttoseeanincreasingnumberofpollsfromhere,whichmaywellstarttobringmarketvolatility.Weassumeaconstructivebase-caseoutcome,withbroadcontinuityinthecurrentpolicyframework.Themainriskscenariowouldbetwoextremecandidatesinthepoliti

4、calspectrummovingtothesecond-round.However,eveninthatcase,theCongressionalcompositionislikelytoshiftfromthelefttomorecentre-right.PoliticalcalendarAshortenedcampaignTheelectoralprocesshasmanydeadlinesbeforeElectionDay(seeTable1),andsomedatestimelineoverallhavechangedfromfouryearsago.Th

5、emainchangeisthedeadlinetosubmitacandidate’snametotheElectoralJustice.In2018,acandidateneedstoberegisteredofficiallyby15August,comparedtomid-Aprilpreviously.Themajorpartieswilllikelyhavetheircandidates’namesregisteredbeforethedeadline,butthechangeindatecouldkeepuncertaintiesuntilcloser

6、toElectionDay.Anothersignificantchangeisthelengthofthecampaigninthemedia:ithasbeenreducedfromseveralmonthstojustaboutamonth(September).Table1:KeydatesforthepresidentialelectionDateEvent06April2018Deadlineforexecutiveofficeholderstoleavetheiroffice06March2018-06April2018Periodformembers

7、ofCongresstochangetheirparties06April2018Deadlinefordeclaringpartyaffiliation15August2018DeadlinetosubmitacandidatetoElectoralJustice15August2018Firstroundelectoralcampaignofficiallystarts31August2018Publiclyfundedadvertisingtimelaunches04October2018Endofthecampaignforthefirstround07