巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-再次站在3%的整体通胀水平之上

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1、Brazil:Againat3%-handleinflationWehavecutour2018inflationforecastforBrazilby0.5ppto3.5%.Author:GustavoArrudaServicesandregulatedpricesshouldbenefitfromthisyear’sinflation,whileagoodharvestEconomistlookssettokeepfoodpricesincheck.BancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.Anchoredinfla

2、tionexpectationsmightstarttoanticipatelowerandpossiblystableinflation.Wearerevisingdownour2018forecastforBrazil’sheadlineinflationrateto3.5%from4.0%.Consensushasbeensteadilymovingtowardsourforecast(Chart1).Butnowwehavewidenedthedistanceowingtocontainedincreasesinregulat

3、edandservicespricescombinedwithamildrecoveryinpricesforfood.Whilewelovebecomingconsensus,wehatebeingconsensus.ConsensusinflationWehavebeenwellaheadofthecrowdinforecastingthatinflationwouldfallquicklyin2017.InforecastsdriftourwayMay2016,atthetimeofBrazil’schangeingovernm

4、ent,wearguedthatinflationexpectationswouldbere-anchoredbyamixofcentralbank’sregainedcredibility,astrongercurrencyandtheworstrecessioninBrazil’srecordedhistorywiththeeffectofpullinginflationdowntotargetin2017(pleaseseeBrazil:Andnowforsomethingcompletelydifferent,dated5Ma

5、y2016).Despitesomescepticismexpressedatthetime,ourinflationstoryhasplayedout.Infact,inflationactuallysurprisedustothedownsideandlookssettofinishthisyearat3.0%.Labour-intensivepricesWebelieveservicepriceinflationissettocontinuefalling,becominganimportantdriverofnextshoul

6、dcontinuetofallyear’ssub-4.0%IPCAinflation,despiteexpectedgrowthaccelerationin2018(weforecastGDPtogrowby3.0%).Weareforecastingoverallservicesinflationtofallto3.8%in2018fromthisyear’s4.7%(Chart2).Breakingdownservicesinflationintothreemaincomponents(Chart3),weprojectthatw

7、hilepriceinflationmightstarttoaccelerateforfoodoutsidethehomeandairfares(pushedupbyhigherfoodprices),inflationshouldcontinueonadownwardtrendforlabour-intensiveandotherpriceservicesbasedoneastillbelowpotentialgrowthandinertia.TheBrazilianeconomyisnowonanuptrend,recoverin

8、gfromanaccumulateddropofalmost10%inrecentyears.Aftereightquartersofquarterlycontraction,Brazilhasalreadyfacedt