巴黎银行-墨西哥-宏观经济-墨西哥大选追踪

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1、MEXICO:ELECTIONTRACKERNOVEMBER2017EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconThisisaninteractivemenu.CONTENTSClinkontheboxestonavigatethroughthefile0102020304POLLSGENERALINFOGENERALINFOBIOS&PARTIESHISTORICALSERIES•BYCANDIDATE•CALENDARHOWPARTIESARECHOOSINGTHEIRCAND

2、IDATES•PRESIDENTAPPROVAL•BYPARTY•WHAT’SATSTAKE?•MORENA(AMLO)•ZAVALA-INDEPENDENT•CURRENTCONGRESS•CONGRESS•POLITICALSPECTRUM•PRI•FRENTE(PAN-PRD)•EVOLUTIONOFPOLLS•POLLSMETHODOLOGY•PARTYPLATFORMS-POTENTIALCANDIDATES-POTENTIALCANDIDATESINPASTELECTIONS•VOTERPROFILEToreturntothismenu,c

3、lickonthe•OTHERINDEPENDENTS•REGIONALASPECTSmenuicon;tonavigatethroughslides,clickonthearrows•OURTEAM•OURRECENTWORKNovember21,2017

4、2CONTENTS01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOS&PARTIESHISTORICALSERIES•BYCANDIDATE•CALENDARHOWPARTIESARECHOOSINGTHEIRCANDIDATES•PRESIDENTAPPROVAL•BYPARTY•WHAT

5、’SATSTAKE?•MORENA(AMLO)•ZAVALA-INDEPENDENT•CURRENTCONGRESS•CONGRESS•POLITICALSPECTRUM•PRI•FRENTE(PAN-PRD)•EVOLUTIONOFPOLLS•POLLSMETHODOLOGY•PARTYPLATFORMS-POTENTIALCANDIDATES-POTENTIALCANDIDATESINPASTELECTIONS•VOTERPROFILE•OTHERINDEPENDENTS•REGIONALASPECTS•OURTEAM•OURRECENTWORKN

6、ovember21,2017

7、301.POLLSNovember21,2017

8、4VOTERPREFERENCES

9、POPULARITYIFELECTIONSWEREHELDTODAY,WHOWOULDYOUCHOOSE?(%oftotalresponse,October2017polls)TheJuly1st2018electionpromisestobeacompetitiveraceLeft-wingAndrésManuelLópezObrador(AMLO)hasanearlyedgeovertheothercandidatesDiffe

10、rentpollsshowasimilarbroaderpicturebutdetailsvary,withothercandidatesalsolookingcompetitive35302520151050AMLO(MORENA)OsorioChong(PRI)Anaya(PAN)Zavala(Ind.)PedrodeCon(Ind.)"ElBronco"(Ind.)BuendiayLaredoMitosfkyElFinancieroSource:BuendiayLaredo,ConsultaMitofsky,ElFinanciero,BNPPar

11、ibasNovember21,2017

12、5VOTERPREFERENCES

13、POTENTIALELECTORATEWHAT’SYOUROPINIONABOUT…?(October2017)Left-wingAMLOfacesresistancefromalargesectionoftheelectorate,butlessthaninearly2017PRIcouldchoosealesser-knowncandidatetoavoidhighrejection,butwillhavetoworkontheirappealPotentialFRE

14、NTE(thePAN-PRDcoalition)candidatesappealmiddle-