巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-墨西哥：对于北美自贸协定毫不犹豫

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1、Mexico:MuchadoaboutNAFTAAuthor:LoudercacophonyinrecenttradetalksfuelstheperceivedriskofNAFTAcollapse.MarceloCarvalhoOurbasecaseremainsthatNAFTAwillbemodernised,notterminated,though.HeadofEmergingMarketResearch,LatamAsforpolicyresponse,thebarlookshighfora

2、ratehikeanytimesoon.@MCarvalhoEconLuizEduardoPeixotoEconomistThefourthroundoftradetalkstodiscusstheNorthAmericaFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)betweenMexico,CanadaandtheUS,whichendedthisweek,hasbeennotableforanincreaseBancoBNPParibasBrasilSAintensions.Thelanguageh

3、asbecomemorebelligerent,therhetoricmorecontentious,atleastinpublicstatements,andconsequentlytheoddsofadisappointingoutcomeappeartohaveTensionsrising,butwerisen.Nonetheless,ourbasecaseremainsthatcoolerheadswillultimatelyprevail,andthatthinkadealwillbedoneNAF

4、TAwillendupbeingmodernised,ratherthanterminated.Afterall,posturingandbrinkmanshiparenotuncommonnegotiatingtactics.Westillbelievethatawin-win-winsolutionisbothpossibleanddesirable.Ifnationalself-interestprevails,NAFTAshouldsurvive,wethink(seeMexico:AguidetoN

5、AFTAtalks).USproposalspromptMexicoInasense,itisunderstandablethatrecentnegotiationshavebecometrickierasdiscussionsandCanadaconcernshavestartedtoaddressthethornierissues(seeTable1).TheUShaspushedforanumberofproposals,whichbothMexicoandCanadahavestrongreserva

6、tionsabout.Theseincludethe‘sunset’clause,whichwouldadduncertaintytobusinessesplanningcross-borderoperations;changesintherulesoforigincouldunderminetheefficiencyofregionalsupplychains;andtinkeringwithdisputesettlementproceduresmightbeseenasgivingroomforpoten

7、tiallymoreprotectionistresolutions.Inaddition,labourlawdiscussionshaveyettostart.NAFTAnegoitiationsstillWhat’snext?Thefifthroundofdiscussionsisscheduledfor17-21November,withthehavesomewaytorunproceedingroundsonlyexpectedtotakeplacein2018(althoughtheyhaveyet

8、tobeformallyscheduled).Whilenegotiatorshadinitiallyaimedtofinishtalksbytheendofthisyear,itisnowcleartheywillspilloverwellintonextyear(forourInfochart,seenextpage).IfadealisnotreachedbytheendQ12018thoug