巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-墨西哥：最低工资，最小影响

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1、Mexico:Minimumwage,minimalimpactMarceloCarvalhoNegotiationsareunderwaytohikeMexico’sminimumwage,andshouldconcludesoon.HeadofEmergingMarketResearch,LatamWhilethecentralbankisconcernedaboutthepotentialpass-throughfromalargehikeonLuizEduardoPeixotoinflation,ourestima

2、tessuggestamoremutedimpact.EconomistWecontinuetoexpectinflationtoplungenextyear,pavingthewayforratecuts.BancoBNPParibasBrasilSA@MCarvalhoEconNegotiationsareunderwayinMexicoforanewminimumwage,andshouldconcludesoon.The.minimumwageisdecidedbyatripartitecommittee(Conas

3、ami)thatincludesrepresentativesMinimumwagehikeonthefromthegovernment,unions,andemployers.Althoughthereisnospecificruletodeterminecardsthewageadjustment,itgenerallytakesintoconsiderationinflationexpectationsandestimatedproductivitygains,withinputsfromdifferentexperts

4、,includingthecentralbank.BanxicoconcernedbigThecentralbank(Banxico)hasexpressedconcernthatalargeminimumwagehikecouldfuelwagehiketofuelinflationinflation,especiallyinlightofthecurrentlowunemploymentrate,slightlyabove3%.Lastyear,theminimumwagewashikedbynearly10%to80pe

5、sosperday(aboutUS$4.20).Fornextyear,thelabourministryhasindicatedthatthehikecouldbecloserto12%.Markettalk,however,putsthefigureataround20%withsomeexpressingtheopinionthattheupcomingpresidentialelectioninJuly2018andtheongoingNAFTArenegotiationmighttiltthediscussionst

6、owardsalargerminimumwagehike.Two-stageimpactonWhatistheimpactoninflation?BancodeMéxicosplitsitintotwostages(seeTable1).Thefirstinflationstageisthetransmissionoftheminimumwagehikeintobroaderwagenegotiations.Thisisoftencalledthe“lighthouseeffect”,astheminimumsalarymig

7、htworkasareferencetoguidewiderwagediscussionsintheeconomy.Thesecondstageisthepass-throughfrombroaderwageincreasesintooverallCPIinflation.Table1:Banxico’stransmissionmechanismfromminimumwageraisestoinflationSource:Banxico“SalarioMínimoeInflación”–March2016BNPParibas.

8、ImpactfromminimumBanxicohasestimatedamodeltogaugethesecoefficientsoftransmission(SalarioMinimoewageonbroaderwagesinflación,2016).Itestimat