巴黎银行-美股-宏观经济-墨西哥：北美自由贸易区之“墙”

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1、Mexico:TheNAFTAwallAuthor:MarceloCarvalhoNAFTAfaceskeydatesahead,buttalksseemlikelytodragthroughH22018,wethink.HeadofEmergingMarketWe’vemadeaflowchartwiththepotentialscenariosfromdayoneiftheUScallsitquits.Research,Latam@MCarvalhoEconThedecisiontoundothedealisnotthatsimpleands

2、tatusquowouldremainforawhile.LuizEduardoPeixotoEconomistAfterfive(andahalf)roundsoftalks,theNorth-AmericanFree-TradeAgreement(NAFTA)BancoBNPParibasBrasilSArenegotiationsbetweentheUS,MexicoandCanadahavereachedacriticalpoint.Allthethreecountriesinvolvedagreethat,afternegotiationsh

3、itawalllastyear,thissixthroundiskeyforthefutureofthedeal,andhaveagreedtoextendtalksbythreedays–from21to29January.KeydatestowatchinThereareseveralupcomingkeydatestowatch(seeTable1).Theseventhround,yettobecomingweeks…scheduled,isexpectedtotakeplacebyearlyMarch,goingbypatternsfromp

4、astnegotiationsthathadanaveragebreakofone-and-a-halfmonths.…buttradetalkswilllikelyNegotiationswilllikelycontinueintoH22018,ifnotintonextyear,inourview.MarchwasdragintoH2,wethinkpreviouslysetasthetargetdeadlineforafinaldeal,accordingtostatementsmadebyallnegotiatorsafterthefifthr

5、ound.ButrecentdevelopmentssignalthatnegotiationswouldlikelywaitatleastuntilaftertheMexicanpresidentialelectionson1July.ThenewMexicanpresidentwilltakeofficeonlyon1December,andtheUSmid-termelectionstakeplaceinNovember.So,chancesarethattheNAFTAtalkscouldextendintonextyear.NAFTAtalk

6、scanmatterBesides,negotiationshaveeffectivelyconcludedononlytwooutofthe30chapters,withtheforMexicanelectionsthornierissuesyettobediscussed.IldefonsoGuajardo,Mexico’schiefnegotiatorhasbeenquotedassayingthataround70%ofthediscussionsareyettotakeplace,thoughhehasunderscoredthatthere

7、wasmoreheadwayontechnicalaspects.Whiledelayscouldmeanthecontinuationofthestatusquofornow,theyalsoimplythattheuncertaintyremains.Also,thismayexacerbateanationalistrhetoricinMexico.USTPAmechanismAnotherdatetokeepinmindistheexpiryon30Juneofthe“fast-track”authoritytonegotiateexpires

8、inJunetradedealsintheUS,theso-calledTradePromot