巴黎银行-墨西哥-宏观经济-北美自由贸易协定启示录

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1、Mexico:NAFTA-pocalypse(not)nowAuthor:TheissuesthathavemadelessprogresssofarintheNAFTAtalksarethethorniest.MarceloCarvalhoOurbaselinescenarioremainsthatNAFTAwillsurvive,butadealislikelytotaketime.HeadofEmergingMarketResearch,LatamWeexploretradedynami

2、csofapossiblepost-NAFTAworld,fromMexico’sviewpoint.LuizEduardoPeixotoLatamEconomicResearchRecentdevelopmentsintheNAFTArenegotiationprocesssuggeststhatallthreecountries–GabrielGerszteintheUS,CanadaandMexico–haveastheirbaselinescenariothecontinuationofth

3、edeal,ratherthanitsundoing.Despitethelackofactualprogress,themoodnowseemsmuchbetterHeadofFX&IRLatamStrategyCommodityQuantStrategythaninlate2017–goodenoughfortheUSChamberofCommercetocallit“aseachange”.Yet,overall,thisisfarfrombeinga“honeymoon”.BancoBNPP

4、aribasBrasilSAWeflagthatthemainstickingpointsinthenegotiationsarestillmostlynowherenearanagreement(seeChart1).TheseincludeChapters11and19,whichcoverprovisionsforinvestorsandtradedisputesettlements,respectively.Besides,labourissueshaven’tyetbeenSticking

5、issuesremainthedealtindepth–andremainclosetotheheartsofnotonlyCanada’smoreprotectivelawmakersoneswithleastheadwaybutalsotosomeinTrump’scoreconstituency(seeMexico:AguidetoNAFTAtalks).Chart1:ProgressmadeintheNAFTAtalksversusperceivedlevelofdisagreementSo

6、urce:ProMéxico,Mexico’sFinanceMinistry,BNPParibas.SurprisescouldhappenAlongthesamelines,recenttariffsimposedbytheUSonarangeofitemsareatimelyreminderthattheUSadministrationisinclinedtoprotectionism.ThismeansthattheriskoftheUSbalkingatthedealispossible,b

7、utinthatevent,thereisahighlikelihoodthatthestatusquowillbekeptforawhile(Mexico:TheNAFTAwall).Plus,risksofa“tradewar”arenotnegligible.AfterthesixthroundAgainstthisbackdrop,therearehighexpectationsfortheseventhroundofnegotiations(whichfrustrated,seventhi

8、skeystartedonSundayandwrapsuponMarch5),andalsofortheeighthround,expectedinearlyApril.Still,wecontinuetoseenegotiationsextendingintoH22018,possibly2019.FocusonofficialAnysignsofaccentuateddivergencecouldagainstirmarkets.Weemphasise,howev