巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-南非土耳其：寻求长期贸易合作-20170908-bnp paribas-em strategy desknote south africa-turkey,add to long tryzar trade

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1、SouthAfrica-Turkey:AddtolongTRYZARtradeThisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:WefirstrecommendedgoinglongTRYZARon23Junewithspotat3.68arguingthatTRYZARshouldappreciateduetotheratedifferentialbetweenthetwocountries.PiotrChwiejczakSincethentherecommendationincludingcarryha

2、sreturned5%.BNPParibasLondonBranchFX&IRCEEMEAStrategistOn11Augustwerecommendedreducingthepositionby50%andwaitingforabetterentrylevel.WenowthinkthatthetidefortheTRYisabouttoriseagain.ErkinIsikTrade:BuyTRYZARat3.7550.Target3.88withinthreemonthsversus3.71forward.

3、BNPParibasLondonBranchFX&IRCEEMEAStrategistInourinitialarticle,werecommendedalongTRYZARpositionduetobothtechnicalandSaiUllurimacroeconomicconsiderations(seeEMStrategyPlus,23June).ThemacroeconomicBNPParibasLondonBranchargumentremainsinplace.Inshort,Turkeyisattheb

4、eginningofadeflationcyclewithroomforCEEMEAGraduatetheinflationratetodropsharplyinthemediumterm.However,thisisnotthecaseforSouthAfricawheretheinflationratehasalreadyfallensharplyandwhereweexpectrealratestoinchdowngradually.Thereforetheriskpremiumwillcontinuetodec

5、line.Themacroeconomicarguments…OurmainreasonforreducingexposuretotheTRYlastmonthwasthedivergenceintheshort-terminflationoutlookforTurkeyandSouthAfrica.ThelowbaseininflationandhighexpectationaboutfutureeasingwerereflectedinTRYCCYFRAcurve..ThereleaseofAugustinflat

6、iondatashowingareboundoftheheadlineratebackintodouble-digitterritorycausedanimmediatecorrectionintheTRYandrates.However,wedonotexpecttheinflationratetoexceedthelevelofnominalratesandsoTRYspotrealratesshouldstaypositiveThepricingoutofratecutsinTurkeywillincreaset

7、heprobabilityofpositivereturnsonTRYUSDpositions.Atpresent,1-monthpositiverealisedreturnsinlongTRYUSDandZARUSDpositionsbothseemtohaveanupperboundofaround5%(Charts1and2).However,inthelastthreemonths,Turkey’srangeofreturnshasremainedfirmlyinpositiveterritoryascarry

8、hasluredmoreinflowsthanisnecessarytocoverthedomesticsavingsgap.Incontrast,ZARone-monthreturnshaveoftendippedintonegativeterritory.Thisdifferenceinperformanceismorecle