汇丰银行-新兴市场-股票策略-看好俄罗斯股市，看衰土耳其-20170830-gems equity strategy：preferring russia to turkey-hsbc

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1、30August2017GEMsEquityStrategyEQUITYSTRATEGYGLOBALEMERGINGMARKETSPreferringRussiatoTurkeyWepreferRussiantoTurkishequitiesHSBCEMCOUNTRYPORTFOLIOCountryHSBCviewRussianpolicyistootight,TurkishpolicyistoolooseCEEMEAoverweightValuationandpositioningsupportourstanceCzechRepublicn

2、eutralEgyptoverweightGreeceoverweightGoingintoyear-end,theenvironmentforEMequitiesstilllooksconstructive–groundedinHungaryneutralagoldilocksUSeconomicscenarioandaweakUSD.MostEMstockmarketsarelikelytoPolandunderweightQatarunderweightperformprettywell,despitethefacttheyalreadysitond

3、ecentyear-to-dateperformance.RussiaoverweightNevertheless,onestillneedstopickrelativelosersaswellaswinners.ThisnotemakesSouthAfricaneutralthecaseforRussia(whichisdownyeartodate),overTurkey(whichhashadaTurkeyunderweightUAEneutralstellaryear).AsiaunderweightChinaoverweightThekeydriv

4、ersaremacro.Weforecastoilpricestorisemodestly,withmarketIndiaunderweightrebalancingunderway.RussianmonetarypolicyistootightandshouldbeeasedIndonesiaunderweightsignificantlyinH2,withdisinflationstrongandsome(albeitspecific)bankingsectorKoreaoverweightpressure.BycontrastinTurkey,pol

5、icyistoolooseandtheeconomyisoverheating.MalaysianeutralPakistanunderweightThecreditguaranteefundwillnotaddasmuchstimulusinthesecondhalfoftheyear,Philippinesunderweightunlessasimilarfacilityisintroducedagain.ThehighfrequencydomesticcreditgrowthTaiwanneutralnumbersarealreadysuggesti

6、ngaslowdown.MelisMetiner,ourTurkeyeconomistisThailandoverweightprojectingjust2.6%GDPgrowthinH2,whichwouldrepresentamajorslowdownLatamoverweightBraziloverweight(page4).Ifpolicy-makerscontinuetoover-stimulatetheeconomy,overheatingMexiconeutralpressureswillamplifyandeconomicriskswill

7、riseparticularlyiftheexternalenvironmentChileunderweightbecomesevensomewhatlesssupportive.ColombiaoverweightPeruoverweightEarningssurprisesandindeedmomentumreflectdifferentialsingrowthandpolicy.So,forFrontierMarketsoffbenchmarkexamplerevisionshavebeenmuchstrongerinTurkeythaninRuss

8、ia.AslongasthisSource:HSBCestimat