jpmorgan-全球新兴市场-股票策略-关键交易和风险-2017.7.19-113页-key trades and risks emerging markets equity strategy

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1、Completed19Jul201704:42AMHKTDisseminated19Jul201705:14AMHKTGlobalEmergingMarketsEquityResearch19July2017CorrectedNote(Seepage126fordetails)KeyTradesandRisksEmergingMarketsEquityStrategyItislikelythatwehavepassedthehighestpointinpositiveEMEPSrevisions.EmergingMarketsEquityStrategyEMPMIsha

2、vebeenabove50formorethanayear.Themarketandanalysts’ACAdrianMowatconvictionongrowthhasbuiltastherecoverymaturesintoanexpansionphase.(852)2800-8599Inourview,itisincreasingconfidenceinthesustainabilityofEPSthatwilladrian.mowat@jpmorgan.comdrivetheassetallocationfromDMtoEMplusattractthelocals

3、avingspool.BloombergJPMAMOWATOurcaseforEMissummedupas:(1)returntopremiumEPSgrowth,(2)J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedEMcheaprelativetoDM,and(3)UWallocationtoEM.PedroMartinsJunior,CFAThemajorpolicyeventinSouthAfrica(SA)istheANCleadershipelectionin(55-11)4950-4121December2017.A

4、headofthat,SAremainsalow-growtheconomywithahigh-pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.combetacurrency.FornowweforecasthigherreturnsinAsianmarkets.WeareBancoJ.P.MorganS.A.downgradingSAtoUW.IntheEMportfoliowehavehadamodestUWinDavidAserkoff,CFAACMexico.TheUWwasreducedinMarchtomanagetheriskfromPeso(44-20)

5、7134-5887appreciationasthecurrencywasdrivingoutperformanceofalocalmarketthatdavid.aserkoff@jpmorgan.comlaggedEM.WearenowclosingtheUWbymovingMexicantelecomfromBloombergJPMAASERKOFFUWtoneutral.J.P.MorganSecuritiesplcOurkeytradesare:(1)EMs’newbullmarketfueledbyEPSgrowth;(2)StyleRajivBat

6、rabiaslowforwardP/EandrelativeEPSrevisions;(3)Transitionfromreflationto(91-22)6157-3568trendnominalgrowth;(4)MoreiPhonesthanironore;(5)ASEANlift:rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.comIndonesiaandPhilippinesfinancialandconsumer;(6)RidingtheinsuranceJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedrateswave;(7)China’sfall

7、ingriskpremium;(8)Chile:policychangeisSanayaTavariacoming.(1-212)622-5469EMTop10stocks:Tencent(700HK),BOC(3988HK),COLI(688HK),SECsanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.com(005930KS),POSCO(005490KS),SberbankOfRussia(SBERRX),X5J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC(FIVELI),OTPBank(OTPHB),Vale(V