20101201-Deutsche Bank-Global Emerging Markets Strategy

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1、GlobalStrategyUpdateCompany1December2010GlobalEmergingMarketsStrategyStructuralchallengestodriveperformanceDisconnectbetweentopdownperceptionsandMicrodriversMajorityofinvestorsexpectlongtermGEMoutperformanceWeinitiateonGEMwithacriticallookatsomeoftheli

2、kelylongtermdriversoftheassetclassrelativetotheglobalequityuniverse.BothinstitutionalandretailinvestorshavegenerallypositiveviewsaboutthelongtermprospectsforGEM,GlobalMarketsResearchwhicharereflectedinongoinginflowsintotheassetclass,inourview.Webelieve

3、thisconsensusisbasedonperceptionofsuperiormacro-economicfactors,theremarkableoutperformanceofGEMequitiesoverthepastdecadeandtheprevailingbehaviouralpsychology,whichhasmovedagainsttheUSmodelofeconomiesandmarketsinfavourofalessliberalmindset.Structuraldr

4、iversofGEMequitiestochangegoingforwardAgainstabackdropoflowerglobaleconomicgrowth,marketoutcomesappeartohavebecomefarmoreuncertainandpolicydependent.Weareespeciallyconcernedaboutthesustainabilityofthoseeconomiesandbusinessmodels,whicharepredicatedupone

5、xportledgrowth,includingcommodities.Wearealsowaryabouttheincreasedtendencyforgovernmentsofcertaincountriestointerveneinthecorporatesectortothedetrimentofminorityshareholders.OverthepastdecadetheGEMequityassetclasshasgenerallybeenregardedasagearedplayon

6、globalgrowth.Wethinkthatthefocusofassetallocationwillincreasinglyshifttothewaysinwhichindividualcountriesandgovernmentsadapttothenewenvironment.ValuationsreasonablebutnotcheapagainstdevelopedmarketsGEMequityvaluationshavemovedtowardsparitywithdeveloped

7、marketsespeciallyonasector-adjustedbasis,thoughlikeallequitymarkets,theyremaincheaprelativetofixedincome.Thereishowever,adearthofobviousbuyideassincemanyofthecheaperstocksfacestructuralchallenges,suchaswhatappeartobepotentiallyexcessivelevelsofcapexort

8、hepossibilityofarbitrarystateinterference.Converselythemainlyprivatelycontrolled,highgrowthstocksandmarkets,generallytradeatdemandingvaluations.Wethinkthatoverall,GEMshouldtradeatadiscounttodevelopedmarkets,inparticulartheUS.Longterminv