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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc33JWBT347/MckinseyMay27,201016:12PrinterName:Hamilton33ValuationinEmergingMarketsTheemergingeconomiesinAsiaandSouthAmericawillexperiencestronggrowthoverthecomingdecades,possiblyevenrecoveringfromthe2008re-cessionearlierandfasterthanmanydevelopedeconom
2、ies.Overthelongterm,manyanalystsseeChinaandIndiamovingintotheranksoftheworldslargesteconomies.1Thissometimesspectaculareconomicdevelopmentwillproducemanysituationsrequiringsoundanalysisandvaluation.Intherisingnum-berofprivatizations,jointventures,mergers,andacquisitio
3、ns,localfinancialpartiessuchasbanksandcapitalmarketswilldisplaygrowingsophistication.Institutionalinvestorswillalsocontinuetodiversifytheirportfolios,addinginternationalholdingsinemerging-marketstocks.InChapters29and30,wediscussedthegeneralissuesaroundforecastingcashflo
4、wsinaforeigncurrency,estimatingcostofcapitalinaforeigncurrency,andincorporatinghighinflationintocashflowprojections.Inthischapter,wefocusonthespecificissuesthatariseinfinancialanalysisandvaluationofbusinessesinemergingmarkets.Valuationistypicallymoredifficultintheseenviron
5、mentsbecauseofvariousrisksandpossibleobstaclestobusinesses.Theseincludemacroeconomicuncertainty,illiquidcapitalmarkets,controlsontheflowofcapitalintoandoutofthecountry,lessrigorousstandardsofaccountinganddisclosure,andhighlevelsofpoliticalrisk.Itisimpossibletogeneraliz
6、eabouttheserisks,astheydifferbycountryandmayaffectbusinessesindifferentways.Academics,investmentbankers,andindustrypractitionershaveyettoagreeonhowtoaddressthem.Methodsvaryconsiderably,andpractitionersoftenmakearbitraryadjustmentsbasedonintuitionandlimitedempiricalevi
7、dence.TheauthorswouldliketothankAndreAnnemaforhiscontributiontothischapter.´1See,forexample,D.WilsonandR.Purushothaman,DreamingwithBRICs:ThePathto2050,GlobalEconomicsPaper99,GoldmanSachs&Co.(October2003).713P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc33JWBT347/MckinseyMay27,201016:12PrinterName
8、:Hamilton714VALUATIONINEMERGINGMARKETSSinceemerging-marketvaluationsaresocomplexandthereisnoagreed-uponmethod,werecommendatr
