barclays the emerging markets quarterly differentiation continues

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1、EmergingMarketsResearchDecember2013TheEmergingMarketsQuarterlyDifferentiationcontinuesPLEASEREFERTOTHELASTPAGEFORANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES.Barclays

2、TheEmergingMarketsQuarterlyCONTENTSOverviewDifferentiationcontinues.....................................................

3、......................................................3EMassetshavestruggledfollowingthesurprisetaperdelayinSeptember,withmarketsremainingnervousabouttheFed’spolicyandfocusingonstructuralproblemsinEM.Whilethesechallengesarereal,theyalsoseemlargelypricedin.Atthesametime,evidenceofaglobalma

4、nufacturingrebound,accompaniedbysoftercommoditypricesandmutedinflationincoremarkets,isbuilding.TradeSummary........................................................................................................................................24EMCreditPortfolio...........................

5、........................................................................................................28EMCorporateCreditStrategyLatAmandEEMEACorporateStrategy:Re-emergingmarkets...........................................29IthasbeenatoughyearforEMcorporateinvestors;wethink2014willbebett

6、er.Inparticular,thereactionofEMspreadstoFedtaperingshouldbemoremuted.AsiaCreditStrategy:Slimpickings.........................................................................................45WebelievereturnsonAsiacreditwillbesmallerthanwhatthebetatoUScreditwouldsuggest.WeprojectAsiahighgr

7、adespreadstoberoughlyunchangedoverthecourseof2014andthesectortogenerate~200-250bpofexcessreturns.WeexpectamildspreadwideninginAsiahighyield(of~25bp),leadingtoanexcessreturnforecastof~350-400bp,whichtranslatesintoatotalreturnforecastof2.25-2.75%.MacroOutlooksAsia:North-southdividetowidenag

8、ain................................................................................62Movinginto2014,weseethreefactorsthatwilllikelywidenthenorth-southdivideinAsia:NorthAsiaismoreleveragedtotheglobalcycle,thusbetterpositionedforagrowthacceleration;balanceofpaymentsdy