瑞信-减持美日，重仓新兴市场-全球股票策略-credit suisse-global equity strategy regional allocation

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1、14September2017GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAndrewGarthwaite442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comRegionalallocationMarinaProninaWedowngradeJapantobenchmark(fromoverweight)because:i)BoJ442078836476marina.pronina@cr

2、edit-suisse.compolicyisincreasinglyunclear(theirpurchasepacehastaperedbyaroundRobertGriffithsc20%fromitspeak)atatimewhenCPIinflationexfoodandenergyis-0.1%;442078838885ii)thecaseforyenweaknesshasdiminished;iii)PrimeMinisterAbe'slossofrobert.griffiths@credit-suisse.compopularit

3、ythreatensatighterfiscalpolicyandlossofreformmomentum;iv)NicolasWylenzekbuybacksaretrackinglowerthan2016,whileJapanisthemostleveraged442078836480nicolas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comregiontoglobalPMIs,whicharepeaking.WhatstopsusfromdowngradingAlexHymersfurther:i)clear-cutsupport

4、fromfundsflow(BoJ/corporatebuying);ii)Japanis442078889710No.2onourvaluationscorecard(withEV/EBITDAparticularlydepressed);alex.hymers@credit-suisse.comandiii)weseesomeclearsignsofcorporatechange.MengyuanYuan442078880368OurlargestoverweightremainsGEMequities:Weaddedtoweightings

5、inmengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comAprilandJune,havingbeenoverweightsinceDecember2015.GEMcurrencieshaveclear-cutvaluationsupport(26%cheaponourmodels)andtheyarethemostimportantdriverofreturns.GEMequitiesarealsocheap(19%onasector-adjustedPEbasis).GEMcorporatesappeartobechangingfo

6、rthebetterwithimprovedcapitaldiscipline,whileunitlabourcostsarefallingforthefirsttimeinsixyears.Thetechshareofmarketcapisnowtwicethatofcommodities,andabovethatoftheUS;GEM,webelieve,benefitsmorethananyotherregionfromdigitalisation/disruptivetechnology.GEMalsostillhaspolicyflex

7、ibility.Onlyathirdofequityoutflowssince2013havereturned.Russia,ChinaandKorealookattractiveonourscorecards.ContinentalEurope:smalloverweightinlocalcurrencyterms:Indollarterms,ContinentalEuropeanequitiesareaclearoverweight.WecutlocalcurrencyweightingsinJune(owingtoconcernsovere

8、urostrength,with10%onthecurrencytakingc.6%offEPS).Supportsincluderel