瑞信-减持美日，重仓新兴市场

《瑞信-减持美日，重仓新兴市场》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、GlobalEquityStrategySTRATEGYRegionalallocationWedowngradeJapantobenchmark(fromoverweight)because:i)BoJpolicyisincreasinglyunclear(theirpurchasepacehastaperedbyaroundc20%fromitspeak)atatimewhenCPIinflationexfoodandenergyis-0.1%;ii)thecaseforyenweaknesshasdiminished;iii)PrimeMinisterAbe'slossofpo

2、pularitythreatensatighterfiscalpolicyandlossofreformmomentum;iv)buybacksaretrackinglowerthan2016,whileJapanisthemostleveragedregiontoglobalPMIs,whicharepeaking.Whatstopsusfromdowngradingfurther:i)clear-cutsupportfromfundsflow(BoJ/corporatebuying);ii)JapanisNo.2onourvaluationscorecard(withEV/EBI

3、TDAparticularlydepressed);andiii)weseesomeclearsignsofcorporatechange.OurlargestoverweightremainsGEMequities:WeaddedtoweightingsinAprilandJune,havingbeenoverweightsinceDecember2015.GEMcurrencieshaveclear-cutvaluationsupport(26%cheaponourmodels)andtheyarethemostimportantdriverofreturns.GEMequiti

4、esarealsocheap(19%onasector-adjustedPEbasis).GEMcorporatesappeartobechangingforthebetterwithimprovedcapitaldiscipline,whileunitlabourcostsarefallingforthefirsttimeinsixyears.Thetechshareofmarketcapisnowtwicethatofcommodities,andabovethatoftheUS;GEM,webelieve,benefitsmorethananyotherregionfromdi

5、gitalisation/disruptivetechnology.GEMalsostillhaspolicyflexibility.Onlyathirdofequityoutflowssince2013havereturned.Russia,ChinaandKorealookattractiveonourscorecards.ContinentalEurope:smalloverweightinlocalcurrencyterms:Indollarterms,ContinentalEuropeanequitiesareaclearoverweight.Wecutlocalcurre

6、ncyweightingsinJune(owingtoconcernsovereurostrength,with10%onthecurrencytakingc.6%offEPS).Supportsincluderelativegrowthmomentum,valuationandanECBwhich,byfocusingtoomuchonitsinflationmandate,potentiallycouldunderwriteanassetbubble.Theriskremainsthattheeurocapturesmoreofthemacroupside.Westaybench

7、markUKequities:ThedominantdriversofUKequitiesare:sterling(weareclosetotheendofthesterlingbearmarketintrade-weightedterms);commodities(22%ofmarketcap);GEMexposure(c.17%ofsales)andleadindicators(withtheUKactuallysomewhatdefensive).O