瑞信-新兴市场-股票策略-新兴市场股票还有什 么问题？

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1、7February2018Europe/UnitedKingdomEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEMEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYAlexanderRedman442078836896alex.redman@credit-suisse.comWhatelsecouldgowrongforEMequitiesArunSai442078830002arun.sai@credit-suisse.comFigure1:Emergingequitiesabsoluteandrelative

2、totalreturn170160MSCIEM150140130120MSCIEM/World1101009080Jan16Jan17Jan18Source:MSCI,CreditSuisseresearch■Wehavebeenstruckbyhowwellemergingequitiesandparticularlycurrencieshaveheldrelativestrengthoverthepastthreetradingsessions,whichisconsistentwithourpositivestanceontheregion,wherefundam

3、entalsremainindicativeofemergingequitiesatamid-cycleperformancephasevis-a-visthelater-cycledynamicsevidentintheUS.■However,therearegoodreasonsforthemarkettoexercisediscretionbetweenemergingandUSequities.Firstly,emergingmarketstradeonacyclicallyadjusted(Shiller)P/Eof14.1xversus33.1xforthe

4、S&P500,secondly,emergingmarketinflation(Turkeyaside)staysrelativelybenign,andthirdly,withjustonenotableexception(SouthAfrica)thelargestemergingmarketsnowoperatebasicbalance(C/AplusFDI)surpluses.■Nevertheless,wewereunnervedbythecomplacencyweencounteredduringthreeweeks'concentratedmarketin

5、ginJanuary.WhilewebelievestronglythatthepositivecaseforemergingequityfundamentalsremainsstructurallyunchangedafteraweekofintenseUS-ledpricevolatility,wedescribe10developmentswhichcouldeitherinisolationorcombination,servetodisrupttheemergingequitybullrun.■The10keyrisksinourvieware:(i)rene

6、gotiationsfailtostrikeacompromiseandtheUSexitsNAFTA;(ii)theUS-ledglobalcapexreboundunderwhelmsversusexpectations;(iii)US10Ybondyieldsbreakabove3%and/orthedollarstrengthens;(iv)Chinagrowthshockfromdeleveraging/reform/interestratepolicyerror;(v)EMROErecoverystymiedbyaccelerationinrealwageg

7、rowth;(vi)valuationcorrectiondrivenbyUSquarterlyearningsdisappointment;(vii)Saudi/IraniandomesticorexternalcrisissendsoilaboveUS$80/bbl;(viii)theelectionofAMLOorLulashiftsLatampoliticstoaleftistagenda;(ix)JacobZumaremainsasSouthAfrica'sPresidentuntilhistermexpires;and(x)T