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1、November6,201811:22PMGMTMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+JonathanFGarnerEQUITYSTRATEGISTJonathan.Garner@morganstanley.com+8522848-7288PankajMataneyEQUITYSTRATEGISTPankaj.Mataney@morganstanley.com+8522239-7830LauraWangEQUITYSTRATEGISTLaura.Wang@morganstanley.com+8522848-6853Y
2、inanZhang,Ph.D.QUANTITATIVEANALYSTYinan.Zhang@morganstanley.com+8523963-3507StevenYe,CFAQUANTITATIVEANALYSTSteven.Ye@morganstanley.com+8522239-7799CoreyNg,CFAEQUITYSTRATEGISTCorey.Ng@morganstanley.com+8522848-5523CrystalNgEQUITYSTRATEGISTCrystal.Ng@morganstanley.com+
3、8522239-1468AsiaEMEquityStrategyAlmanac:GarnerAlpha
4、AsiaPacificFinallyatFairValueOctober'sdeclinestookourcoveragemarketsdowntoorevenslightlybelowourbase-caseJune2019targets.Forthefirsttimeinayear,welackconvictiononwherenextforindices,butupdateourviewsonSector,Country
5、,andStyle.OurKeyViewsAre:AllourcoveragemarketsfellheavilyinOctober,butEMdidnotunderperformDM,andhencedidnottakeouttheperformancerelativelowfromJan-16,whichstillstands.Thisispotentiallybullish,butwecontinuetopreferJapantoEMasaftertheearlyNovemberbounce,thereisupsideto
6、ourTopixtargetof1,720(+5%),butdownsidetoourEMtargetof945(-5%).WealsostayEWMSCIChina(Targetis73or-1%)vs.EMwithselectiveexposuretoAshares.Consensusearningsestimatesgloballyarenowintheprocessofbeingadjustedsubstantiallylower,particularlyforAutosandIT,thetwoareasthathave
7、mostconcernedusthisyear.Thisisashiftthattypicallycoincideswiththelatterphasesofabearmarket.However,ourtop-downEPSestimateisstill15%belowconsensusforEMfor2020and7%belowforJapan.Globalgrowthindicatorshavesoftenedmarkedlyinthelasttwomonths,withdownsidesurprisesintheChin
8、aPMIforManufacturing,ServicesandExportsnotable.Inresponse,China'seasingcycleismovingintofullgearandtargetingfiscalsupportoftheconsumer.WearealsocloselymonitoringChina/UStradetensions,theUSDandFedFundfuturesasadditionalguidestofutureperformance.AlthoughPresidentTrumph
9、asrecentlysignaledwillingnesstodoadealwithPresidentXiattheG20,therearestillsignificantdifferencesbetweenthetwosidesinrelationtoChin
