德意志银行-新兴市场-em macro and strategy focus-20170623-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange23June2017UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsDrausioGiacomelliEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliStrategist(+1)212250-7355(+1)212250JedEvansdrausio.giacomelli@db.com(+1)212250-8605EconomicsFocus:Weexpect

2、SouthKoreatoreportstrongerexportgrowthasSebastianBrownholidayseffectsdropout.InEMEA,weexpectCNBtokeeptheratesonholdinnextStrategist–LatAmweek’sMPCmeeting.WeforecastamarginalincreaseinPolishpricesinJune,with(+1)212250-8191annualheadlinefallingslightlyto1.8%YoYonbaseeffects.InLatA

3、mtheBraziliangovernmentcouldlowertheinflationtargetfor2019despitelackofacrediblefiscalanchor.WeseeBanReploweringitspolicyrateby50bpnextFridayondeteriorationGautamKalaniinleadingactivityindicatorsandprospectsofinflationconvergingtothetargetband.Strategist–EMEAStrategyFocus:Rather

4、thanpositioningfordirectionweexpectinvestorstocontinue+44(20)754-57066tosearchformoreidiosyncraticopportunitieswhererealratesremainrelativelyhighsuchasinMexico,Turkey,Argentina,Egypt,andRomania.JulianaLeeFX:Weexpectinvestorstocontinuetopositioninlower-betacarrytradesandSeniorEc

5、onomistavoidcommoditycurrenciesmore-especiallywherevaluationandpositioning+852(2203)8312areunappealingasinRUBandZAR.Aftertherecentrallyonhighercopper-to-oilwerecommendbeinglongUSD/CLPtargeting675.However,bettervaluationandreducedlongsbodeforBRLtostayinrange.Valuation,lowbetaGuil

6、hermeMaronetoglobalmarkets,andflowsalsosupportholdingshortEUR/PENandARS/CLP.Strategist-LatAmWeconcentrateourEMEAlongsinthemoremanufacturing-orientedTRYand(+1)212250-8640PLNonvaluationandpositioning,butwetakeprofitonourUSD/ILSshortsonrenewedsignsofexportsandinflationweakness,wors

7、epositioningandwiththeBoIlikelyincreasingintervention.HavingpositionedforabounceupinElinaRibakovaUSD/MXNnear18wenowexpectarange-boundMXNonrenewedsignsofChiefEconomistdisinflationandfixedincomeflows.(+44)207547-1340Rates:WehavebeenadvocatingfordurationexposureinMexicanlocalmarke

8、ts(nominals),outrightIRSreceiversinthebelly,spr