德银-南非-宏观经济-南非：通胀松弛的几层深意-20171008-deutsche bank-special report：south africa，several shades of inflation slack

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1、DeutscheBankResearchSub-SaharanAfricaEconomicsDateSouthAfrica8October2017SpecialReportSouthAfrica:severalshadesofinflationslackDaneleeMasiaAcauseforpause?EconomistTherecentpausebytheSARBhasraisedconcernsthattheinflationcyclemaybeturningalotsoonerthanexpected.Suret

2、hereareseveralshort-termriskswhich+27-11-775-7267maycloudtheinflationoutlook,andpossiblyalsoprovidesomestickinesstotheinflationprofile.Butinthisnote,wetakealookastowhyinflationmomentumcanstillsurpriseloweratleastintheneartermandinflationpressuresremainabsentwellint

3、o2019-baringexternalshocks.Aweakgrowthrecoverymayonlyerodeinflationslackatagradualpace.UnlikelyifinflationsurprisestothedownsideasweexpectOurinflationforecastsremainbelowconsensusandtheSARB'sprojections.Weexpectheadlineinflationof4.4%and5.1%in2018and2019vsSARBat5%an

4、d5.3%(Figures6-9).Wethusstillseescopeforfurtherratecutsearlynextyear,butforthistohappen,theSARBmayneedtobesurprisedtothedownside....duetoseveraldegreesofinflationslackWepreferlookingatoutputgapcomponentsfromademand,supplyandlaboursideperspectivetojudgetheseverity

5、ofinflationslack.■Onthelabourside,weemphasiseourthinkingaroundtheimportanceofunitlabourcostcompression,whichisstillwellunderway(Figures1-4).Inthefaceofhighunemployment,weakproductivityandasubduedemploymentoutlook,wagegrowthmoderationisexpectedtocontinue(seeFigure

6、s11-14).Onarelativetrade-weightedULCbasis,thedirectionalimplicationfortheexchangerateremainsapositiveone(Figure5).■Demandsidepressuresremainbroadlyabsent.Householddemandandconsumerconfidencepointtobelow-trendinflationforthenextyearandahalf.Anegativecreditimpulse

7、andexpectationsofbelownormalcreditgrowthfurtherstrengthensthistrend.Historically,noinflationupcyclehascoincidedwithnegativeconsumerconfidence(seeFigures16-18).■SupplycapabilitiesareweakifoneconsidersthelowpotentialgrowthrateprojectedbytheSARB.Similarly,capacityuti

8、lisationratesshouldn'tbecomeaproblemanytimesoon.Excessinventories,reducedsupplierbacklogsandpressureonneworderswillkeeppurchasingcommitmentslowinthenearterm.Overtheme