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1、DeutscheBankResearchSub-SaharanAfricaEconomicsDateSouthAfrica13June2017SpecialReportSouthAfrica:Anextendeddownturn?DaneleeMasiaTheeconomylooksheadedforanextendeddownturnInthisnotewetakeadeepdiveintolatesteconomicgrowthtrends.FollowingtheEconomistunexpectedrecessioninQ1an
2、ddeterioratingconfidence,wethinkthecurrent+27-11-775-7267cyclecouldwellbeatthelongestdownturn(1989-1993)whichlasted51months.Growthfor2017isseenat0.4%,barelybeating2016.Atthisjuncture,weseenoclear"circuitbreaker"giventhatconfidenceiscurrentlycentraltothegrowthengine,whichwo
3、uldhaveordinarilytriggeredaninventoryrestockingcyclebynow.Theinventorycycleisunlikelytocontributeasmuchtoeconomicgrowthaswepreviously(0%vs1%).Nextyear'sgrowthof1.7%shouldbemostlydrivenbyareboundinhouseholddemand(contributing1%)andaninventoryrestockingcycle(contributing1.
4、2%),whichshouldreversethecurrentmoderationincapacityutilistationrates.Thebaseislowenoughtoavoidanannualcontraction,butrisksarehighPreliminarydataforQ2showthatareboundineconomicactivityispossible(DBe0.4%qoqsaar).ThePMI,creditimpulseanddisposableincomegrowthisonthemend.How
5、ever,thereappearstobeastrongdrop-offintransactionalactivity,suggestingconsumersaredeleveragingatafasterpacethanbefore.Onthecorporateside,significantcutsinjobsandcapexmaybelimitedowingtheiralreadylowbases.Worryingly,thetradeandbusinessservicessectors,whereactivitycontracted
6、inQ1,couldseefurtherjobcuts.Thisislikelytohurtmiddletohigherincomeindividuals.Finally,thelargestrisktothecapexcyclewouldbeanoutrightcollapseinconstructionworks,primarilyledbythepublicsector.Capexratiosarealreadyattheirlowestinthebusinessservicesandmanufacturingsector.Hou
7、seholds'financialvulnerabilitypeakedlastyear,butgrowthtoslowin2017WeupdatedourHouseholdFinancialVulnerabilityIndex(HFVI),whichreflectsanimprovementinvulnerabilitylevelsthisyear.However,mostofthisimprovementisduetobalancesheetrepair,assavingsratiosandasset-to-liabilityratio
8、saremending.Thismeansdelayedgratification,providingaspringboardfordemandrecoveryonceconfidencerebounds.Fo
