巴黎银行-拉美-宏观经济-拉美：2017年底关键事件-20170913-latam key events through end-2017-bnp paribas

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1、Latam:Keyeventsthroughend-2017Author:Latam’sagendalookscrowdedwithsocialsecurityreforminBrazil,politicsinMexico,Chile,MarceloCarvalhoArgentinaandBrazil,andafocusonactivityandfiscalitemsinColombia.HeadofEmergingMarketResearch,LatamWehavecreatedascheduleoftheseeventsalongw

2、ithourviewonwhyeachisrelevant.GustavoArrudaEconomistBrazil:SocialsecurityreformmovingbackintothespotlightBancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.Theendoftheyearisapproaching,andseveralupcomingeventsanddeadlineswillbedrivingFlorenciaVazquezBrazil’sagenda.Socialsecurityreform,themainreform

3、inthespotlight,isdelayedandmaybeEconomistdiluted,butitisnotdead,webelieve.Nonetheless,thegovernmentwillneedtomovefasttogetBNPParibasSucursalBuenositapprovedbeforetheendoftheyear.Onthegrowthside,theprivatisationsandconcessionsAiresagendaisunderway,withoilfieldauctionsschedu

4、ledforSeptemberandOctober.LuizEduardoPeixotoEconomistFinally,onpolitics,eventhoughthe2018electionismorethanayearaway,thefirsttalksfromBancoBNPParibasBrasilSApartiesandpossiblecandidateswilllikelyoccurbeforeyear-end.Potentialcandidateswilldiscussthoseissuestheythinkaremosti

5、mportantforthecountry.Marketparticipantsshouldrespondfavourablytowardscandidateswhoareinfavourofthecurrentreformagenda.(ForfurtheragendaonBrazil,pleasesee,Brazil:Keyeventsthroughend-2017.)Mexico:2018budgetandelectiontalksNAFTA3rdroundtotackleThethirdroundofNAFTArenegotiati

6、onsarescheduledfor23September,followingtwofairlycontentiousissuesquietrounds.Withthemostcontroversialissuesstilltobetackled,thenextstepswillbeimportant.InCongress,theBudgetaryLawwillneedtobeapprovedby31October;whilemoredetailsonthesourceofthespendingcutspromisedarestillmis

7、sing,afirstreadofthedraftpointstoaconservativebudgetagain.WithCongress’sattentionbeingdivertedbythe2018election,akeytaskinthecomingmonthswillbetoseeifthetwo,main,centre-rightparties(PANandPRI)canovercometheirinternaldivisionsandwhotheircandidate(s)willbe.TherecentCongressi

8、onalshutdownsuggestsafieryrun.Colombia:Activity,theguidinglightBudgetreportstohintWeexpec