巴黎银行-拉美-信贷行业-阿根廷信贷：目标更高-20170831-bnp paribas-argentina credit aim higher

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1、Argentinacredit:AimhigherAuthorFlorenciaVazquezCreditgrowthhasacceleratedsharplysince2016,andcurrentlyexceedsdepositgrowth.EconomistUpuntilnow,bankswereabletofundcreditdemandwithexcessliquidity.BNPParibasSucursalBuenosAiresBut,weexpectupwardpressureondepositinterestratestostarttomount.Localf

2、inancialsystemhasSincethe2015election,thecentralbankhasimplementedacrediblemonetaryframeworkwithstartedtoexpandtheobjectiveofbringinginflationdowntosingle-digitlevels.The(small)localfinancialsystemhasstartedtodevelopinacontextofpositiverealinterestrates.Inparticular,theCentralBankofArgentina(BC

3、RA)hasbeenkeenonspurringcreditgrowth.CreditisverylowintermsThelackofacrediblemonetarypolicyframeworkandconsequentialhighinflationhadresultedofGDPinaverysmall,domesticfinancialsysteminwhichlong-termcreditwaspracticallynonexistent.Totalcredittotheprivatesectorstandsatonlyat13%ofGDPandmortgageloan

4、srepresentjust1%ofGDP.Long-termcreditisgrowingLastyear,thecentralbankimplementedanewschemebywhichlocalbanksareallowedtoatastrongpacelendfundsatarealrateplusinflationtofinancehomepurchases.Thenewmechanismhasbeenprettysuccessful,andmortgageloanshaveincreasedUSD1.4bnyeartodate.Mostcreditcomponents

5、But,therecoveryincredithasbeenwidespreadandexceedstheexpansioninmortgages(uparegrowinginrealterms52%y/y,ona7-daymovingaveragebasis).Indeed,pledge,personalcreditand“documentos”(IOUs)areup67%,56%and33%y/y,respectively,alsoona7-daymovingaveragebasis.Totalcredittotheprivatesectorinpesosisrisingata3

6、6%y/ypace(equivalenttoan11%realgainwithinflationrunningata22%y/ypace).UnemploymentisaboutDepositgrowth,inIncontrast,growthofpesodepositshaslagged,havingstoodfairlystableinthe20-25%y/ycontrast,haslaggedrangelately.Inparticular,growthofpesoCDshassloweddowntojust10%y/yrecently(aratethatimpliesayea

7、r-on-yearcontractioninrealterms).CreditgrowthwasfundedSofar,localbankshavebeenabletoaccommodatetheincreaseinloansusingtheirexcesswithexcessliquidityliquidity.But,wethinkthosetimesareclosetoanend.Withcreditgrowthexceedingthepaceofa