巴黎银行-拉美-银行业-阿根廷更加激进的央行-20170824-argentina more aggressive central bank-bnp paribas

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1、Argentina:MoreaggressivecentralbankAuthor:Argentina’scentralbankisonholdbuthasexplicitlyreinforceditstighteningbias.FlorenciaVazquezInterventioneffortstoflattentheyieldcurvesuggestratecutswilltakelongertomaterialise.EconomistBNPParibasSucursalBuenosTherefore,wedonotno

2、wexpecttheeasingcycletostartuntillateQ42017.AiresOnholdbutmorehawkishArgentina’scentralbank,BancoCentraldelaRepublicaArgentina(BCRA),keptthekeypolicybiasrateonholdatitsmeetingon22August,anoutcomebothweandconsensushadexpected.Nevertheless,wehaveputbackourexpectationofrate

3、cutsfromSeptembertowardstheendoftheyear,inlightofthereinforcedtighteningbiasevidentinbothitsstatementanditsrecentaggressiveinterventioninthesecondarymarketforliquiditypaper–aclearsign,inourview,thatrateswillremainhighforlongerthanwehadanticipated.Guidinginflationgraduall

4、yAtAugust’smonetarypolicymeeting,theBCRAreiteratedthatitwillmaintainitsanti-inflationarylowerbiastoensurethedisinflationprocesscontinuestowardstheofficialtargets:12–17%in2017(whichlooksveryunlikely,inourview)and10%+/−2%for2018(challenging,butnotimpossible).Thebiasreflect

5、sthediscomfortwithabove-targetinflationexpectations(seeChart1)andstubbornlyhighcoreinflation(1.8%m/minJuly).ContinuinginterventionsImportantly,theBCRAalsoexplicitlystatedthistimethat“itwillcontinuetorestrictliquiditytoliftLebacyieldsconditionsthroughactivesecondarymarket

6、operationsintheLebacmarket”.Infact,ithasintervenedactivelysincethedayofthemonetarypolicymeetingtoliftratesby140bpinthesix-tonine-monthareaoftheLebacyieldcurve.Intheshort-end,meanwhile,theriseinyieldswasmoremodest(20–40bponaverage).UnemploymentisaboutStartofeasingcycleThe

7、centralbankhasrecentlyintervenedactivelyinthemarketsinabidtoflattentheLebacpushedtoQ4yieldcurve(Chart2).WeviewthisasasignthatratecutswillnowtakelongertomaterialisethanSeptember,ourpreviousexpecteddateforthestartoftheeasingcycle.Inouropinion,thecentralbank’srecent,moreagg

8、ressiveinterventionsuggeststhatthestartoftheeasingcyclewillnowbedelayedtolateQ4.TheBCRAappearstobeclear