巴黎银行-中国-信贷策略-中国：信贷风险分化加剧-20190711.pdf

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1、DEEPDIVE

2、CHINAPleaserefertoimportantinformationat11July2019theendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS

3、EMSTRATEGYChina–SharpeningcreditriskdifferentiationTheregulators’takeoverofanInnerMongolianbankKEYMESSAGESstrugglingwithhighcreditrisktriggeredmarketjittersovertheChineseauthorities’c

4、ommitmenttostructuralThefailureofBaoshangBankhashadaprofoundimpactontheoperationandliquidityofChina’sdeleveraging.Othersmallcommercialbanksandnon-financialsector,inourview.bankfinancialinstitutionsimmediatelyhaddifficultiesaccessingliquidity.MaterialisingcounterpartyriskssawT

5、heinitialmarketreactionsuggestshighfinanciallendersturnmorediscerningaboutbondsandcreditsrisksandmarketvulnerabilities,whichweexpectusedascollateralbysmallcommercialbanksandNBFIs.authoritiestoaddressintheshortterm.ThefailureofBaoshangBankpointedtobroaderOnbalance,wethinktheim

6、plicationsarepositive.Theauthoritieshavestartedtotackletheimplicitvulnerabilities.Tocalmuneaseandrestoreconfidence,guaranteeproblemandarisk-basedpricingtherefore,theauthoritieshavereassuredthemarketthatmechanismhasbeguntowork.Baoshangwasanindividualcaseratherthanpartofasystem

7、aticresolutionforallsmallandmedium-sizedbanksthathaveaccumulatedhighfinancialrisks.MARKETVIEWInadditiontoprotectingBaoshang’sinvestorsandcreditorsupto99.98%,theauthoritieshavetakenBoth3-monthand6-monthSHIBORratesareattheirsystem-widemeasures.ThePeople’sBankofChinaandlowestlev

8、elssince2010,butstilldropping.Wethink,theChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionareduepartlytolingeringimpactsoftheBaoshangincreasingliquiditysupplythroughopenmarkettakeover,thisisinlinewithPBoC’sobjectiveofcuttingoperationsandtargetedliquiditysupportforsmallbanksfundingcostsfort

9、herealeconomy.Fornow,weprefertowaitforSHIBORtobottomoutandtheRRRcutsandNBFIs.Asaresult,financialjittershavelargelyflaggedbyPremierMinisterLiKeqiangtomaterialise.abatedandliquiditysupplyisample.Untilthen,weprefertoholdthereceivingpositionforWethinktheBaoshangcasehashadanumbero

10、fbothIRSandbonds.Westillexpectourtargettobepositiveimpacts.Theso-cal