巴黎银行-欧洲-投资策略-公转私交易更看重价值-20190711.pdf

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1、FOCUS

2、EUROPEPleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport11July2019EQUITY&DERIVATIVESPublic-to-privatedealscouldfavourValueEmbarrassmentofriches,butfewtargets:GlobalKEYMESSAGESprivateequityfirmstodaysitonarecordUSD2.44trninWethinkanaccelerationinpublictoprivatedealscouldfun

3、dsatend-Q12019,accordingtofinancialdatafirmleadtoanoutperformanceofvaluestocksandthosePreqin(Figure1),havingraisedacumulativeattractivetobuyout.ConsiderournewEuropeanLBOUSD4.8trnfrom2013to2018.But,accordingtocustombasketandtheBNPParibasEquityValueEuropemanagementconsultancyBain&Co.,theyareETF.strug

4、glingtofindenoughtargetstoinvestthiscash.Privateequityfirmshaverecord-highlevelsof'dryBuyoutvolumesup,butfarfrom2007highs:Thuspowder'toinvest,largelyinleveragedbuyoutfunds.farin2019,globalbuyoutdealshavealreadyeclipsed2018invaluetermsatUSD260bn,butarefarfromthePublic-to-privateprivateequitydealshav

5、estartedtorecordUSD425bnhitattheheightofthelastleveragedaccelerate,withMerlinandOsramannouncedrecently.buyout(LBO)boomin2007(Figure2).Leveragedloans(yieldingonaverage4%)remaininhighdemand,giventheproliferationofnegative-yieldingPrivatemarketvaluationsveryhigh:Justasthesovereignbondsandcreditgloball

6、y.numberofpublicly-listedcompanieshasshrunk,theprivatemarket’snetassetvaluehasgrowntoDuringthelastLBOboomin2006-07,theEuropevalueUSD5.8trngloballyasatend-2018,withprivateequityfactorgained46%andoutperformedthebenchmarkbymorethanhalfofthistotal,accordingtomanagement12%,withLBOsprovingacatalyst.consu

7、ltancyMcKinsey.Asaresult,privateequityvaluationshaveexpanded,withtheaveragedealdoneat11.1xEV/EBITDAin2018.TRADEIDEASValuefactorcouldbenefit:WethinkaboominBuytheBNPPEuropeanLBOcustombasket.public-to-privatedealsofthesortrecentlyseenwithMerlinEntertainments,BCAMarketplace,AxelBuyBNPPEquityValueEuro

8、peETF(EVAEFP)SpringerandOsramLichtcouldonceagainproveaRef:EUR121.4potentcatalystforthevaluefactor.BetweenthestartTheriskofbuyinganETFislimitedtothenotionalinvestedof2006andSeptember2007,whenLBOvolumesgrewsh