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1、SEPTEMBER2017EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconLATAMMACROECONOMICOUTLOOK:CONTENTSPageLatinAmericaintheglobalcontext3Brazil:Lookingup20Mexico:Changinggears40Colombia:Steadyasitgoes65Chile:Growthaccelerationinthehorizon74Argentina:Inrecoverymode79Detailedforecasts8621
2、.LatinAmericaintheglobalcontext3GLOBAL:COMPOSITELEADINGINDICATOR(100=LONG-TERMAVG)Source:OECD,BNPParibas.Globalupturn4GLOBALMONETARYPOLICYFedFundstargetrateand2yrTreasurybondyields(%,a.r.)Source:ECB,FED,BoJ,Macrobond,BNPParibasGlobalmonetarypolicy:gradualremovalofaccommodation5GLOBAL:HISTO
3、RICALUSDOLLARCYCLESUSRealeffectiveexchangerateindex(1973=100)1501985:Plazaaccord1402017:America1973:BrettonFirstpolicyWoodsabandoned1302000:Techcrash1201101981:Reagan100presidentREER,CPIbased1991:GulfWar(1-yearmovingaverage)2008:FinancialcrisisUS/EURbuydollars901970197419781982198619901994
4、199820022006201020142018Source:FED,Macrobond,BNPParibas.DottedlineshowsBNPParibasforecsat.USdollarcyclescomeinwaves:wethinktheUSDhaspeaked6GLOBAL:COMMODITYPRICESIMFnon-fuelcommoditiespriceindex(2005=100)Source:IMF,Macrobond,BNPParibas.DottedlinesshowIMFforecasts.Lookingbetter7LATAM:COMMODI
5、TIESASASHAREOFLATAMEXPORTS(%)100%Mining/metalsSoftCommoditiesOilexports806040200LatamMexicoBrazilArgChileColSource:IBGE,DANE,INEGI,BCRA,INE.Ratiosbasedon2013data.Exportexposuretocommoditiesvariesacrosstheregion8LATAM:COMMODITYEXPOSUREANDCURRENTACCOUNTCapitalflows(USA)100%Currentaccountbala
6、nce(%GDP)NIGERIABOLIVIA90%PERUCHILEQATAR80%COLOMBIARUSSIA70%ARGENTINA60%BRAZILCommodityINDONESIASOUTHAFRICAprices50%UKRAINE(China)40%INDIAISRAELMAURITIUSdependency30%MALAYSIAPAKISTANINDIATHAILANDPOLAND20%exportsVIETNAMMEXICOINDIAPHILIPPINES10%SLOVENIACHINACommodityBANGLADESH0%-10-8-6-4-202
7、46810Source:Worldbank.Ratiosbasedon2015data.Commodityprices(China)andcapitalflows(USA)matterforLatam9LATAM:REALGDPGROWTHPERFORMANCE(%,y/y)Source:IMF,BNPParibas;*BNPParibasMarketEconomicsforecastsGrowth:downfromthegoldendays,butshouldrecover10LATAM:MARKETOPENNE
