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1、LATAMCHARTBOOKGOINGTOTHEPOLLSJANUARY2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconLATAMMACROECONOMICOUTLOOK:CONTENTSPageLatinAmericaintheglobalcontext3Brazil:Summeriscoming15Mexico:Changinggears36Colombia:Growthdriversapreciouscommodity63Argentina:Inrec
2、overymode75Chile:Growthaccelerationinthehorizon82Detailedforecasts8721LatinAmericaintheglobalcontext3GLOBAL:COMPOSITELEADINGINDICATOR(100=LONG-TERMAVG)Source:OECD,BNPParibas.Globalupturn4GLOBALMONETARYPOLICYFedFundstargetrateand2yrTreasurybondyields(%,a.r.)Source:ECB,F
3、ED,BoJ,Macrobond,BNPParibasGlobalmonetarypolicy:gradualremovalofaccommodation5GLOBAL:HISTORICALUSDOLLARCYCLESUSRealeffectiveexchangerateindex(1973=100)1501985:Plazaaccord1402017:America1973:BrettonFirstpolicyWoodsabandoned1302000:Techcrash1201101981:Reagan100presidentR
4、EER,CPIbased1991:GulfWar(1-yearmovingaverage)2008:FinancialcrisisUS/EURbuydollars901970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018Source:FED,Macrobond,BNPParibas.DottedlineshowsBNPParibasforecsat.USdollarcyclescomeinwaves:wethinktheUSDhaspeaked6GLOBAL:COMMODITYPRI
5、CESIMFnon-fuelcommoditiespriceindex(2005=100)Source:IMF,Macrobond,BNPParibas.DottedlinesshowIMFforecasts.Lookingbetter7LATAM:COMMODITYEXPOSUREANDCURRENTACCOUNTCapitalflows(USA)100%Currentaccountbalance(%GDP)NIGERIABOLIVIA90%PERUCHILEQATAR80%COLOMBIARUSSIA70%ARGENTINA60
6、%BRAZILCommodityINDONESIASOUTHAFRICAprices50%UKRAINE(China)40%INDIAISRAELMAURITIUSdependency30%MALAYSIAPAKISTANINDIATHAILANDPOLAND20%exportsVIETNAMMEXICOINDIAPHILIPPINES10%SLOVENIACHINACommodityBANGLADESH0%-10-8-6-4-20246810Source:Worldbank.Ratiosbasedon2015data.Commod
7、ityprices(China)andcapitalflows(USA)matterforLatam8LATAM:POLICYINTERESTRATESLatam:Policyratecycles(%perannum)DottedlinesareBNPPforecastsSource:BCB,BM,BCC,BR,BCRP,Macrobond,BNPParibas.Mostlyeasingin20189LATAM:TONEINMINUTESANDFUTUREPOLICYRATESCorrelationbetween“hawkish”t
8、oneinminutesandchangesinfuturepolicyrates0.81monthahead3monthsahead0.66monthsahead0.40.20-0.2BrazilColombiaChileMexic
