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ID:8219081
大小:1.25 MB
页数:80页
时间:2018-03-10
《j.p. 摩根-中国-房地产行业-中国房地产:尽善尽美-2017.9.25-jpmorgan-china property sector as good as it gets》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed24Sep201704:09PMHKTDisseminated25Sep201707:00AMHKTAsiaPacificCreditResearch25September2017ChinapropertysectorAsgoodasitgetsRidingonthestrongphysicalmarketsinceearly2016,mostdevelopersreportedAsiaCreditResearchmuchimproved1H17resultsthatshoweddeleveraging,impro
2、vedinterestservicesACDanielFancapabilityandbetterliquidity.Outliersarethoseadoptingasset-lightmodelsor(852)2800-8988excessivedebt-fundedexpansion.Salesmomentumremainshealthyassuggesteddaniel.cc.fan@jpmorgan.combytheupwardrevisiontofull-yearsalestargetsbyaquarterofdevel
3、opersinourJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedcoverage.However,webelievethepropertysectorhasprobablyhitthepeakofitscurrentcycle.Weseeriskofacyclicalslowdownin2018afterapossibleoverdraftofdemandsince2016.Inourview,thegoodnewshaslargelybeenpricedinforthesectorasawhol
4、e,anditistimetocherrypickandsegregatewinnersfromlosers,leavinguswithonlyahandfulofpicksandsomepans.Financialsgenerallyimprovedin1H.Leverageintermsofnetdebt/EBITDAimprovedformostdevelopersonbettermarginsandstrongcashinflow.Ingeneral,EBITDAmarginimprovedasaresultofhighe
5、rASPgiventhestillstrongphysicalhousingmarket,expansionintohigher-marginuppertiercitiesandloweroperatingcostsduetoeconomiesofscale.Onthebackofstronger-than-expected1H17sales,around25%ofdevelopersunderourcoveragerevisedupwardstheirrespectivefullyeartargetssuggestingsales
6、momentumcouldstayhealthyinthenearterm.AnotherpositivesignisthatsomedeveloperslikeYuzhou,CIFI,Sunac,ChinaSCEandEvergrandehavecapitalizedonthestrongequitymarkettoraiseequityandthusstrengthenedtheirbalancesheets.Winnersarethoseabletoridethestrongphysicalmarket.IntheIGspa
7、ce,twocompaniesstoodout,i.e.1)Sino-Oceanbenefittedfromitsaggressivesalespushthatshouldeventuallyhelptoloweritshigher-than-peerleverage;and2)Dalwandeliveredstrongnumbersbutthesewereunfortunatelycloudedbyuncertaintiessurroundingitsoverseasinvestmentsandchairman.Therestad
8、optingamorebalancedapproachdeliveredsatisfactoryresultsbutwealsoseelimitedroomforimprovementgoingforward.Inthedouble-
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