j.p. 摩根-中国-消费品行业-保持热度

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1、Completed09Jan201808:09PMHKTDisseminated09Jan201808:48PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch09January2018China/HKDiscretionaryConsumerSectorKeepthepotsimmering[exA-shrs]WebelievemarginexpansionaidedbyacceleratingpremiumizationandHongKong,Chinacostoptimizationwi

2、llreplacetop-linegrowthasthekeycatalystforDurableGoodsconsumerdiscretionaryin2018.OurtoppickisHaierElecandourtopGeorgeHsuACavoidisLukFook(downgradetoUW).Inthisreport,wealsoupgrade(852)2800-8559ChowTaiFooktoOW,andinitiatecoverageofChowSangSang(N).george.

3、hsu@jpmorgan.comStocksunderourcoveragerose60%in2017(vs.MSCIChina’s+52%),ofBloombergJPMAGHSUwhichc13%wasdrivenbyEPSrevisions(vs.MSCIChina’sc22%)andKevinYin(852)2800-8521therestbyre-rating.Amongthese,homeappliances’re-ratingwasakevin.yin@jpmorgan.coml

4、aggard,catchinguptoglobalpeers,inourview,whilejewelers’re-ratingCarolGuanlookstouslikeafront-runaheadofanearningsramp-up.(852)2800-8593carol.guan@jpmorgan.comHomeappliances:ConsensusunderestimatesreplacementdemandJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limite

5、dinwell-penetratedcategories.Chinahomeappliancessurgedc75%in2017(vs.MSCIChina’s+52%)thankstostrongAirConvolume.Lookinginto2018,whilewesharethemarketviewthatacoolingpropertymarketmaydeterincrementalhomeappliancedemand,ourChinaConsumerSector:2018analysiss

6、uggeststhatthemarketbeingtooupbeatonunderpenetratedoutlook-thethreecriticaltrendscategorieslikeAirCon,butunderstatingthereplacementdemandinwell-thatwilldrivegrowthandimpactpenetratedcategorieslikewashingmachinesandrefrigerators.Wearguedynamics[exA-shrs]

7、,KevinYin,thatsuchdemandissufficienttofillintheshortfallfromslowing9January2018.Inthisreport,wediscussthethreecriticaltrendsthatproperty,givenlessdependenceonpenetration.Besides,ASPupgradeswillimpactconsumerindustrywillbeakeydriverpropellingmarginexpans

8、ion.dynamicsandhighlighttheJewelry:Mixedviewonjewelers.HKbusinesswasthemajorstorypotentialwinnersandlosers.drivingjewelers’valuationtohistoricallyhighlevelsin2017.For2018,weprefernameswithaspiralmarginexpansiontrajectorytocatchu