j.p. 摩根-中国-燃气公用事业行业-2018年展望：管道增长

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1、Completed23Nov201701:22AMHKTDisseminated23Nov201701:24AMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch23November2017ChinaGasUtilitiesGrowthinthepipeline–Outlookfor2018SharesofChinagasutilitieshaverisenby54%YTD,outperformingHSCEIHongKong,Chinaby22%.Thiswasdrivenbybetter-th

2、an-expectedgasdemandgrowthof18%Utilitiesin9M17andabrighterpolicyoutlook.Lookingto2018,weexpectthisACElaineWustructuralgrowthstorytocontinue,withdemanddrivenbyhigherresidential(852)2800-8575penetrationandcoal-to-gasconversion.Webelievemarginswillstabilize

3、aselaine.wu@jpmorgan.comlocalgovernmentshavealreadystartedpass-throughofhigherwintergasBloombergJPMAEWUcoststoend-users.OurtoppickisCRGas.YiDu(852)2800-8563Wintergasdemandlikelytobecappedbysupplylimitation.Gassupplyyi.du@jpmorgan.comshortageispossib

4、lethiswinter,onourestimates,ifdemandweretorisebyJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited>25%in4Q.Assumingdomesticproductionrisesby12%yoy(similartothegrowthrateYTDandSinopec'sguidance),thenweestimateimportswouldhavetojumpbyc60%tosatisfytotaldemandof82bcmi

5、n4Q17,up25%yoy.Wehaveassumedgasdemandgrowthof25%in4Q17and20%Figure1:YTDshareperformance(%)in2017.140120Potential20%demandupsidefromconvertingcoal-to-gasheating.100Chinacurrentlyusesc220MMtonsofcoaleachyearforheating.Giventhe80government’splanstopartlyel

6、iminatecoalusageinthenorthernregion,we60believemuchofthesecoalheatingcapacitieswouldbeconvertedtonatural40gasinthefuture.Weestimatethiscouldresultinnewgasdemandof2055BCM,or25%of2016demand,ifhalfofthecapacitywereconverted.0Keycatalyststoshareprices.Themo

7、nthlygasconsumptionfigureswillcontinuetobeakeydatapointtowatch.Higheroilpricescouldmakenaturalgasmorecompetitiveanddriveconsumptionhigher.Weexpectgovernmentpoliciestoremainbenignin2018.ForCRGas,earningsresultsinMarchSource:Bloomberg.willlikelybethenextke

8、ycatalyst.ChinaGaswillreportitsinterimon27November.Webelievepositivesarealreadypricedingiventhepositiveprofitalert.Pricetargetchanges.WehaverolledoverourpricetargetstoDec-18andrevisedupourPTsforBEH,ChinaGasandENN.Welowero