j.p. 摩根-美股-石油服务与设备行业-北美石油行业2018年展望

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1、Completed17Dec201708:41PMESTDisseminated18Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch18December20172018NorthAmericaOutlookFracTightnesstoDriveImprovedProfitability,ButDrillingLooksLargelyCappedWearehighlightinganexcerptfromour2018Outlook:AWatchedPotOilServicesandEquipmentNeverBoils:LessBear

2、ishonFundamentals,ButNegativeRevisionsCycleACSeanCMeakim,CFAStillLoomsreportpublishedDecember12th.(1-212)622-6684sean.meakim@jpmorgan.comE&Pspendlookingsimilarto2017,withfurthershifttowardscompletions.BloombergJPMAMEAKIMWithbackwardationcontainingtheforwardstripbelow$55,operatorsareJ.P

3、.MorganSecuritiesLLCunlikelytomateriallyrampbudgetsandactivityin2018.Ourpost-3QE&PJustinWHawkinsBudgetWatchsuggestsa~10%averageincreaseinspendingbasedon~15%of(1-212)622-5248companiesofferingpreliminaryguidance.Investordemandsforgreaterjustin.w.hawkins@jpmorgan.comdisciplineandspendwithincas

4、hflowcouldweighonE&Pspend,howeverweJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCremainunconvincedthatoperatorswillbroadlyshowrestraint,andthinkThomasHotchkiss,CFAbudgetshavescopetoslowlycreepupthroughtheyear,especiallywithoil(1-212)622-2201hovering~$55.Onceagain,thePermianislikelytoseethelion’sshareofthomas.c.ho

5、tchkiss@jpmorgan.comspendasIOCscontinuetoshiftportfoliomixtowardsshortcycleonshoreJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCprojectswithfavorableeconomicsrelativetooffshorecounterparts.WealsoVibhavZutshiexpectincreasingfocusoncompletionsactivityin2018asE&Psprioritize(1-212)622-9398drawingdownelevatedDUCinvent

6、oriesinordertohitloftyproductiontargets.vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedPressurepumping:marketdynamicscontinuetolookfavorable;newbuildsontheway.Evenwithsubstantialreactivationsthroughout2017,thefracmarketremainsundersuppliedinmostU.S.basins,particularlyinthePermianwh

7、eretherigtofraccrewratioof~3xhighlightstheshortageofpumpingfleets.Webelievethatpersistenttightnessshouldsupportfurtherpricingupliftin2018(weestimate~10-15%)alongwithhealthymarginprogression.Keane’srecentannouncementtodeploythreenewbuildfleets(~150khp)int