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1、OilServices&Equipment2Q18Earnings:ThoughtsandObservationsNorthAmericaEquityResearch30July2018With2Q18earningspassingthemidwaypoint,wehavesomethoughtsonthemeswe'veobservedsofar:1)investorsaregainingconfidenceintheinternationalcyclewhileStreetnumberscontinuetodeflate,2)NAMonshoreservicesareunderg
2、oinganotherroundofhaircutstoestimatesaswellonPermianuncertainty,3)thefracmarketisshowingsignsofweakening,butstillmostlya“waitandsee”story,4)landdrillersclaimlineofsighttosustainingactivitylevelsinto2019andlong-termcontractsaremultiplying,5)astrongbookingsquarterforequipmentshouldhelpsustainthelo
3、ngcycletradenearterm(wethinkFTIhasthemostroomtorun),and6)wethinkthegroupissettingupforareversiontradeinto2019withshortcycleoutperforminglongcycle(butnotyet).·Mixed2Qresultsleadingtovolatiletradingforthestocks.2Q18wasdefinedbytherotationtradeoutofshortcycle,NAM-ledstocksandintolongercycleoffshore
4、,internationalexposures(e.g.,offshoredrillers,capequipment).Thoughthenegativerevisioncycleremainsmostlyintact(seeour2018outlook:AWatchedPotNeverBoils),longcycleoptimismisdecidedlyontheupswing.Forexample,~4monthsagoSLB’s2019consensusEPSsatat~$3.25;it’scurrentlyat$2.75andfallingtowardsour$2.45esti
5、mate.Investorshaven'tbeenconsistentintheirsuspensionofdisbelief,however,withBHGEsharescontinuingtotradehigherdespiteasimilarheavinesstoforwardestimates.HAL'searningsresethasledtoanexodusoutoftheU.S.onshoreleaderintolongercycleBHGE(HAL-8%since7/20v.+9%BHGE).AtonepointPTENfell10%intradayonitsprint
6、withaweakpumpingoutlook,onlytorallybackandfinishintheblackonthedayandflatontheweek(matchingtheOSX).·Optimismgrowinginternationally,butneartermactivitystuckinlowgear.Internationalresultsshowedsomeimprovementsequentiallyonseasonallybetteractivity,andthelargecapscontinuetodeliverstrongrhetoricaroun
7、dpricingpowerreturning(atleastforselectproduceservicelinesandmarkets)thoughweremainskepticalattheefficacyoftheseplanssosoonafterhyper-competitivelumpsumawardsfromsomeofthemostactivecustomersintheNorthSeaandMiddleEast.Schlumb
