j.p. 摩根-美股-石油服务与设备-2017q4财报：思考与观察

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1、Completed21Feb201812:15AMESTDisseminated21Feb201812:16AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch21February2018OilServices&Equipment4Q17Earnings:ThoughtsandObservationsAswecrossthemidpointof4Q17earnings,we’retakingtheopportunitytoshareOilServicesandEquipmentsomethoughtson

2、themeswe’veobservedsofar:1)investorsareseeminglylosingACSeanCMeakim,CFApatienceinU.S.onshorestocksas“transitional”issuesextendfrom4Q17into(1-212)622-66841Q18,keepingneartermestimatesunderfireandonceagaindeferringanupwardsean.meakim@jpmorgan.cominflectioninearn

3、ingsrevisions,2)IOCmessagingfora“softfloor,hardceiling”BloombergJPMAMEAKIMforcapexisasexpected,butlargecapU.S.E&PsareincreasinglyfollowingsuitJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCwithbudgetsnotmateriallyreactingtothejumpinspotoil,3)pocketsofJustinWHawkinsoptimismcontinu

4、etospreadregardinginternationalactivity(MiddleEast,North(1-212)622-5248Sea,Russia),butthespecteroflastcycle’smarketsharewarsisemerging,4)justin.w.hawkins@jpmorgan.commorerigupgradesareonthewayfromU.S.landdrillers,keepingusskepticalthatJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCre

5、centpricinggainscanbesustainedthrough2018,5)cashflowconcernsarenotThomasHotchkiss,CFAjustanE&PinvestorissueasyieldsacrosslargecapOFSstocksremainsoft(~3%(1-212)622-2201thomas.c.hotchkiss@jpmorgan.comyieldsofarin4Q),6)pliableequityandcreditmarketshavesupportedaf

6、lurryofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCcapitalmarkettransactionsinOFS,and7)inequipment,onshore,shortcyclenumbersareresettinglower,andlongercyclesubseaisstillfeelingforabottom.VibhavZutshi(1-212)622-9398Holdon,maybetheearningsrevisioncycledidn’tturnpositiveassomevibhav

7、.zutshi@jpmorgan.comthought.AfterasharprallyfromDecembertoJanuary,theOSXquicklyerasedJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedgainsoverthecourseofonly~twoweeks,nowhoveringbacknearDecemberlows.Sincethebeginningofearningsseason,theOSXhascontinueditsstreakofunderperformancer

8、elativetothecommodityandthebroadermarket(-14%sinceSLBprinton1/19v.–3%WTI,-3%SPX)astheearningsrevisioncyclelargelymaintainsitsdownwardtrendforOFScompanies(thoughpartlyduetotransitor