资源描述：
《j.p. 摩根-美股-石油行业-美国整装油行业2018展望》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed11Dec201706:58PMESTDisseminated12Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch12December2017IntegratedOils2018OutlookCrudeDifferentialsandCapitalAllocationKey;StillOWonCNQ,COP,CVXandUWonIMOFollowingtheextensionoftheOPEC/NOPECproductioncuts,the2018outlookforIntegratedOils&RefiningB
2、rentpricesshouldremainreasonablystable(>$50/bbl)aslongasdemandholdsinACPhilGresh,CFA(macrocurrentlylooksgood)andcomplianceremainshigh(alsogoodsofar),(1-212)622-4861bridgingthegapuntilthemarketnaturallyrebalances(whichlikelywillrequireaphil.m.gresh@jpmorgan.comgradualunwindofthecuts).Onth
3、eotherhand,webelievethatrecentcrudeBloombergJPMAGRESHdifferentialwideningintheUS(WTI/Midland)andCanada(WCS),apartiallyJohnMRoyall,CFAoffsettingnegative,couldbeheretostay,asproductionrampsandcrudetransportation(1-212)622-6406costsincrease.Ourlong-termframeworkstillusesa$55/bblBrentpri
4、cethrough2022,john.m.royall@jpmorgan.comaroundwhichourplaybookislargelyunchanged,withafocusonsustainingFCF,AnthonyYuleverageandbalancedcapitalallocation,withapreferencefordebt-adjustedpershare(1-212)622-9515anthony.yu@jpmorgan.comgrowth.Onvaluation,wesee~5%totalreturnpotentialforthegroup
5、byYE18,J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCincludingdividends,suggestingthemarketispricingincloserto$60/bblBrent.OW-ratedCNQremainsourtoppick,asdisciplinedallocationcouldleadtoare-rating.COPandCVXalsoremainOW.IMOremainsUW,givenexpensivevaluationandWCSheadwinds.WeremainNeutralonCVE,HSE,OXY,SUandXOM.Aq
6、uicksynopsisoneachcompanythesisisbelow.Brentcrudepriceoutlook:Productioncutsgoodenoughfornow,butunwindwillneedtobegradual.AssumingthatthemacroholdsandOPEC/NOPECmaintainsahighdegreeofcompliance,weseeBrentpricesaslikelytobesupportedat>$50/bbl.1H18couldbeinsurplus,evenwiththecuts,drivenbys
7、easonaldemandsoftness.2H18couldreturntodrawsonhigherseasonaldemand.For2019,dependingonthepaceofdemandandshaleproductiongrowth,themarketcouldbecomemorenaturallybalancedandallowagradualunwindoftheproductioncuts.WTIandWCSdifferentialsoutlook:WidercrudespreadscouldweighonNor
