j.p. 摩根-美股-石油服务与设备行业-北美石油行业2018年展望-20171218-25页

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1、Completed17Dec201708:41PMESTDisseminated18Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch18December20172018NorthAmericaOutlookFracTightnesstoDriveImprovedProfitability,ButDrillingLooksLargelyCappedWearehighlightinganexcerptfromour2018Outlook:AWatchedPotOilS

2、ervicesandEquipmentNeverBoils:LessBearishonFundamentals,ButNegativeRevisionsCycleACSeanCMeakim,CFAStillLoomsreportpublishedDecember12th.(1-212)622-6684sean.meakim@jpmorgan.comE&Pspendlookingsimilarto2017,withfurthershifttowardscompletions.BloombergJPMA

3、MEAKIMWithbackwardationcontainingtheforwardstripbelow$55,operatorsareJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCunlikelytomateriallyrampbudgetsandactivityin2018.Ourpost-3QE&PJustinWHawkinsBudgetWatchsuggestsa~10%averageincreaseinspendingbasedon~15%of(1-212)622-5248comp

4、aniesofferingpreliminaryguidance.Investordemandsforgreaterjustin.w.hawkins@jpmorgan.comdisciplineandspendwithincashflowcouldweighonE&Pspend,howeverweJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCremainunconvincedthatoperatorswillbroadlyshowrestraint,andthinkThomasHotchkiss,CF

5、Abudgetshavescopetoslowlycreepupthroughtheyear,especiallywithoil(1-212)622-2201hovering~$55.Onceagain,thePermianislikelytoseethelion’sshareofthomas.c.hotchkiss@jpmorgan.comspendasIOCscontinuetoshiftportfoliomixtowardsshortcycleonshoreJ.P.MorganSecuritie

6、sLLCprojectswithfavorableeconomicsrelativetooffshorecounterparts.WealsoVibhavZutshiexpectincreasingfocusoncompletionsactivityin2018asE&Psprioritize(1-212)622-9398drawingdownelevatedDUCinventoriesinordertohitloftyproductiontargets.vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.

7、comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedPressurepumping:marketdynamicscontinuetolookfavorable;newbuildsontheway.Evenwithsubstantialreactivationsthroughout2017,thefracmarketremainsundersuppliedinmostU.S.basins,particularlyinthePermianwheretherigtofraccrewratioo

8、f~3xhighlightstheshortageofpumpingfleets.Webelievethatpersistenttightnessshouldsupportfurtherpricingupliftin2018(weestimate~10-15%)alongwithhealthymarginprogression.Keane’srecentannouncementtodeploythreenewbuildfleets(~150khp)int