j.p. 摩根-美股-电信服务行业-北美有线、卫星与电信行业投资策略-20171220-32页

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1、Completed19Dec201711:07PMESTDisseminated20Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch20December2017Cable,Satellite,andTelcoTheRiseofOTTandvMVPDs:Bracingfora"NewNormal"inVideoDistributionSincecrestingin2009around88%,legacylinearPayTVpenetrationofoccupiedTelecomServices/Cable&hous

2、eholdshasdeterioratedsteadilywithrecentdeclinesmoreprecipitous.GivenSatellitetheaccelerationoflegacysubscriberdeclinesyear-to-dateto3.2%wenowPhilipCusick,CFAACestimatesubscriberdeclinesof~3%perannumthrough2025.Atthesametime,(1-212)622-1444welookfortremendousgrowthamongvirtualMVP

3、DplatformssuchasSlingTV,philip.cusick@jpmorgan.comDirecTVNow,andYouTubeTV–approximately19%CAGRfrom2017to2025BloombergJPMACUSICK–whosegrowingshareinlinearTVsubscriptionsisexpectedtonotquiteoffsetSebastianoCPettilossesonthetraditionallinearside.WebelievethattheviabilityofvMVPD

4、swill(1-212)622-8529sebastiano.c.petti@jpmorgan.combetestedasISPsdrivebroadbandspeeds/pricinghighertore-capturesomeoftheRichardChoesavingsofbundle-shaving/cutting.Additionally,thesuccessofnewentrants,(1-212)622-6708relativetoscaledlegacyprovidersinOTT/vMVPD,hingesontheabilitytos

5、calerichard.choe@jpmorgan.comaddressable/targetedadvertisinginordertorecouplimitedgrossmarginsonEudoraEricksonheadlinepackages.(1-212)622-5623eudora.erickson@jpmorgan.comTraditionalsubdeclinesareacceleratingduetovirtualMVPDsubstitution.MediaDuring2017thelegacyPayTVecosystemhass

6、eensubscriberlossesaccelerateACAlexiaS.Quadranitorecordlevels(estimated3.3m).Weascribetheaccelerationinsubdeclinesto(1-212)622-1896fourpredominantfactors:1)higherprices;2)worseningrelativealexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.comexperience/UI;3)proliferationofvMVPDs;and4)ashrinkinglinearvide

7、oBloombergJPMAQUADRANImarket.Giventhenewtrendlineyear-to-date,weforecast~3%annuallegacyParrisJTaylorlinearPayTVsubscriberdeclinesthrough2025,anda–1%CAGRofalllinear(1-212)622-9252PayTVoverthattime.AsvMVPDecosystemmomentumbuildsandlegacyparris.j.taylor@jpmorgan.comPayTVheadwin

8、dspersist,weforecasta19%CAGRinvMVPDsubgrowthJul