j.p. 摩根-美股-食品行业-美国食品行业投资策略

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1、Completed08Nov201702:16AMESTDisseminated08Nov201702:17AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch08November2017OverweightUSFoodsUSFD,USFDUSPrice:$26.04MovementAwayFromLowerQualityMulti-UnitPriceTarget:$30.00BusinessCoversIndependentStrength.SellOffSeemsOverdone.USFDreported3Q17adj.EPSof$0.39vsour$0.3

2、9andconsensusof$0.37.RestaurantsTotalcasevolumewas2.0%vsour3.5%,andorganic(excludingacquisitions)ACJohnIvankoewas1.0%vsour1.5%.Welookatacquisitionsandcasemixtogetherandthese(1-212)622-6487were1.9%vsour2.5%.Mostnotablyleadingtheminorcashvolumeshortfallwasjohn.ivankoe@jpmorgan.com“other”bus

3、iness,whichisnon-independentorhealthcare/hospitalityrelated.BloombergJPMAIVANKOE“Other”isabout1/3ofbusinessandwasdown3-4%in3Q17asplannedaccountAlexMergard,CFAattritionoffsetaccountadds.Aswearetoldtheaccountslostareofmarginal(1-212)622-1050profitabilityandaccountaddsinthissegmentare2-4

4、xmoreprofitable,thisalexander.mergard@jpmorgan.comallowedoveralladj.EBITDAof$267mvsour$270m,up9.4%y/y.FullLeoPertsovskyup/downsidevsexpectationscanbeseeninTable1.(1-212)622-9756leo.a.pertsovsky@jpmorgan.comStockwasdownasmuchas5%intraday,afterearlytradingbasicallyJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCfl

5、at/up.WebelievemuchofthisreactionwasduetotheCompany’smuted–PricePerformancebutstillsolidguide–relatedtoa100bpsequentialslowingincasevolumesand30EBITDAgrowthguidanceof7-8%y/yin4Q17.Further,“Year-over-year28inflationwillremainforthefourthquarter”and“onamonth-over-monthor$26sequentialbasis,w

6、e’reexpectingverylittleinthefourthquarter".24Aforementionedlow-profitabilityaccountcullingwilllikelyweighonresults22through1H18andhigherinboundfreightcostsrelatedtoHurricanedisruptionNov-16Feb-17May-17Aug-17Nov-17USFDshareprice($)continuesaswell.Our4Q17and2018GP$lessOpex$expectationshardl

7、yRTY(rebased)budgevsprior,pleaseseeTable2.On08/01/17,andreleasedinthe10-Q,theYTD1m3m12mcompanyagreedtofixanadditional$1.1bofdebtvs$3.7bgross(asof3Q17).Abs-5.2%-4.0%-8.5%12.8%Rel-14.2%-1.9%-13.1%-11.3%Thisadditionalinterestexpenseisworth$0.01-$0.02toEPSandisinourexpe