j.p. 摩根-美股-股票策略-美国股票市场2018年展望

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1、Completed14Dec201702:16PMESTDisseminated14Dec201702:33PMESTEquityStrategyandQuantitativeResearch14December2017USEquityMarkets2018OutlookUSEquityStrategyACDubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212)622-3601dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.comBhupinderSingh(1-212)622-9812bhupinder.singh@jpmorgan.comNarendraSingh(1-21

2、2)622-0087narendra.2.singh@jpmorgan.comArunJain(1-212)622-9454arun.p.jain@jpmorgan.comMarkoKolanovic,PhD(1-212)272-1438marko.kolanovic@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCContentsExecutiveSummary4S&P500Price/EPSTargets10StateoftheBusinessCycle13MacroConditions19FundamentalstoRemainSupportive20Val

3、uation31Technicals33StyleandSectorPositioning36InvestmentThemes43Appendix49BloombergsubscriberscanusethetickersJPAMTXO3,JPAMCEQS,JPAMINFR,JPAMTXU3,andJPAMINEXtoaccesstrackinginformationonbasketscreatedbytheJ.P.MorganDeltaOnedesktoleveragethethemesdiscussedinthisreport.Overtime,theperforma

4、nceofJPAMTXO3,JPAMCEQS,JPAMINFR,JPAMTXU3,andJPAMINEXcoulddivergefromreturnsquotedinourresearch,becauseofdifferencesinmethodology.J.P.MorganResearchdoesnotprovideresearchcoverageofthesebasketsandinvestorsshouldnotexpectcontinuousanalysisoradditionalreportsrelatingtothem.Formoreinformation,

5、pleasecontactyourJ.P.MorgansalespersonortheDeltaOneDesk.Seepage53foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrepor

6、t.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comDubravkoLakos-BujasEquityStrategyandQuantitativeResearch(1-212)622-360114December2017dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.comEquityMarketOutlook–KeyTakeawaysS&P500ForecastsSectorOutlookPriceTarg

7、et(2018YE):3,000Financials(OW)—keytaxbeneficiary,easingPolicyNeutralEPS(2019):$155regulations,risingrateexpectationsandincreasingPolicyNeutralEPS(2018):$143payoutratioandROEPolicyEPSImpact:~$10Industrials(OW)—benefitfromin