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1、Completed11Dec201706:58PMESTDisseminated12Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch12December2017IntegratedOils2018OutlookCrudeDifferentialsandCapitalAllocationKey;StillOWonCNQ,COP,CVXandUWonIMOFollowingtheextensionoftheOPEC/NOPECproductioncuts,the2018outlookforInt
2、egratedOils&RefiningBrentpricesshouldremainreasonablystable(>$50/bbl)aslongasdemandholdsinACPhilGresh,CFA(macrocurrentlylooksgood)andcomplianceremainshigh(alsogoodsofar),(1-212)622-4861bridgingthegapuntilthemarketnaturallyrebalances(whichlikelywillrequireaphil.m.gres
3、h@jpmorgan.comgradualunwindofthecuts).Ontheotherhand,webelievethatrecentcrudeBloombergJPMAGRESHdifferentialwideningintheUS(WTI/Midland)andCanada(WCS),apartiallyJohnMRoyall,CFAoffsettingnegative,couldbeheretostay,asproductionrampsandcrudetransportation(1-212)622-6
4、406costsincrease.Ourlong-termframeworkstillusesa$55/bblBrentpricethrough2022,john.m.royall@jpmorgan.comaroundwhichourplaybookislargelyunchanged,withafocusonsustainingFCF,AnthonyYuleverageandbalancedcapitalallocation,withapreferencefordebt-adjustedpershare(1-212)622-9
5、515anthony.yu@jpmorgan.comgrowth.Onvaluation,wesee~5%totalreturnpotentialforthegroupbyYE18,J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCincludingdividends,suggestingthemarketispricingincloserto$60/bblBrent.OW-ratedCNQremainsourtoppick,asdisciplinedallocationcouldleadtoare-rating.COPandCVX
6、alsoremainOW.IMOremainsUW,givenexpensivevaluationandWCSheadwinds.WeremainNeutralonCVE,HSE,OXY,SUandXOM.Aquicksynopsisoneachcompanythesisisbelow.Brentcrudepriceoutlook:Productioncutsgoodenoughfornow,butunwindwillneedtobegradual.AssumingthatthemacroholdsandOPEC/NOPECm
7、aintainsahighdegreeofcompliance,weseeBrentpricesaslikelytobesupportedat>$50/bbl.1H18couldbeinsurplus,evenwiththecuts,drivenbyseasonaldemandsoftness.2H18couldreturntodrawsonhigherseasonaldemand.For2019,dependingonthepaceofdemandandshaleproductiongrowth,themarketcouldb
8、ecomemorenaturallybalancedandallowagradualunwindoftheproductioncuts.WTIandWCSdifferentialsoutlook:WidercrudespreadscouldweighonNor
