j.p. 摩根-美股-机械行业-美国机械行业2018年展望

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1、Completed08Dec201711:20PMESTDisseminated11Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch11December2017USMachinery2018OutlookOurUSMachinerycoveragehasoutperformedthebroadermarketin2017(up34.5%MachineryYTDvs.theS&P500up20.7%),deliveringsolidrevenuegrowthof6.6%andrecordACAnnDuignanoperatingprofit

2、sof11.0%(JPMe)onstrongmomentumacrosstheglobalindustrial(1-212)622-0381complex.However,webelievethatmuchofthepotential“goodnews”isnowpricedann.duignan@jpmorgan.comintostocksinourcoverage;2018stockperformance,inourview,willlikelyhingeonBloombergJPMADUIGNANthesustainabilityofincrementalpro

3、fitsasrevenuegrowthmoderates.WhileglobalJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCmacrorisksareplentiful,themoreimmediaterisktoourcoverageuniversemaystemThomasSimonitschfrominflation,notnecessarilyinrawmaterialcostsbutlikelyinwages.Aseparate(1-212)622-2250(thoughrelated)riskforUSMachinerystocksisinterestrates

4、,whichcouldrisemorethomas.simonitsch@jpmorgan.comrapidlyifwageinflationacceleratessharply.WewillhostaconferencecalltoJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCdiscussouroutlooktodayat10amET.Dial-indetails:888-469-1171(US);AbdulTambal,CFA+1-312-470-7343(outsideUS);passcode:MACHINERY.(1-212)622-0302abdul.tambal

5、@jpmorgan.comFocusisoneconomicactivityinto2018.GlobalGDPgrowthacceleratedin2017J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCandisexpectedtogrowafurther3.7%in2018(vs.3.6%in2017),accordingtothePalashSomaniIMF.JPMeconomistsforecastUSGDPgrowthof2.5%in2018(vs.2.2%in2017)(91-22)6157-4188andexpecttheEurozoneandJapanto

6、acceleratealso.Whiletherearemanyrisks,palash.somani@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedupsidetoUSgrowthforecastslikelydependsontheimpactofpotentialtaxchangesoncorporatecapitalallocation(accordingtoouranalysis,a20%UStaxratecouldresultin~10%EPSupsideforourcoverageuniverse).Endmarketdem

7、andcontinuestoacceleratebroadly.In2017wehaveseenacoincidentrecoveryinkeyUSendmarkets(includingHDtrucks,construction,agriculture,oil/gas,andmining)aswellasacoincidentaccelerationinindustrialproductionglobally.IntheUS,weexpectthat2018willrepresentthepeakof