j.p. 摩根-美股-食品行业-美国食品制造商：调整12家公司的估值和目标股价

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1、Completed12Dec201704:00AMESTDisseminated12Dec201704:02AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch12December2017USFoodProducersTweakingEstimatesandPriceTargetsfor12CompaniesFollowingreviewsofourmodels,weareamendingourEPSestimatesandFoodProducersandRetailersDecember2018pri

2、cetargetsforanumberofourpackagedfoodcompanies.ACKenGoldmanDetailsarebelow;notethatourpricetargetsarerisingmostlytoreflectrecent(1-212)622-0359multipleexpansionacrosspackagedfood.ken.goldman@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAGOLDMANBlueBuffalo(BUFF-Neutral).Weareb

3、oostingoursalesestimatesfor2018-19Etoaccountforthepotentialfore-commercetoperformbetter.Overall,weJoshuaALevine(1-212)6226217thinkthatsalesviaPetSmart–BUFF’slargestcustomer–maycontinuetojoshua.a.levine@jpmorgan.comdisappoint.ThomasPalmer,CFAConagra(CAG–Overw

4、eight).Wearemakingminoreditstoourmodel.(1-212)622-5582CAGremainsoneofourtoppicks,withthepotentialforupsidesurprisesfromthomas.palmer@jpmorgan.comthetopline,margins,andM&A.J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCDeanFoods(DF–Neutral).Weareraisingourestimatesbecauseofrecentlyl

5、owerdairyfutures.WeremainNeutralbutcanseeapathtoEPSbeatsin2018andbeyondshouldthefuturescurvesforClassIIIandClassIVmilkproveaccurate.GeneralMills(GIS–Neutral).Wearetweakingfiscal2Qdowntobetterreflectthecompany’srecentmarginguidance.WeremainNeutralaswethinksom

6、eoftherecentrevenueperformancehasbeenpaidforwithmargins.HainCelestial(HAIN–Neutral).Wearetrimmingourestimatestoreflectcontinuedweaknessinmeasuredchannels.OverallwearecomfortablewithourNeutralrating,aswecontinuetothinksomeinvestorsareoverstatingthelikelyvalue

7、creationpotentialfromabreakup.Hershey(HSY-Neutral).For2018-19E,weareraisingourestimateforthetaxrate(weassumeitrevertsclosertothehistoricalnorm,excludinganyfuturebenefitsfromcorporatetaxlawchanges).Wearealsotrimmingourgrossmarginoutlookforbothyears,thankstoth

8、epotentialforpriceandsupplychaininvestments.LastlywearereducingourexpectationforSG&A;weexpectthecompany’smarketingtobeflexiblewithvolumes.WeremainNeutral.EquityRatingsandPriceTargetsMktCa