j.p.摩根-美股-食品生产-2017.6.29us food producers

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1、Completed26Jun201708:39PMEDTDisseminated27Jun201712:51AMEDTNorthAmericaEquityResearch27June2017USFoodProducers-ReducingRevenueandEPSEstimatesGuidanceandConsensusEstimatesSeemAggressiveAcrossUSPackagedFoodInaweekwhenthreemajorUSfoodproducerswillreportearnings(GIS,FoodProducersandR

2、etailersMKC,CAG),wewanttorefreshourmodelsacrossthepackagedfoodACKenGoldmanindustry.Ingeneral,wearetakingournumbersdowntoreflectour(1-212)622-0359continuedpessimismaboutfundamentals,particularlyregardingrevenueken.goldman@jpmorgan.comgrowth.Wearenotadjustinganyestimatesforprotein-

3、orientedproducersBloombergJPMAGOLDMAN(TSN,DF,DAR,SAFM)orretailers(KR,SFM,WFM)inthisnote.JoshuaALevine(1-212)6226217joshua.a.levine@jpmorgan.comLoweringrevenueestimatesThomasPalmer,CFATakingnumbersdownformostofourpackagedfoodcoverage.For(1-212)622-5582the12packagedfoodcompani

4、esinthisdiscussion,wenowestimatethomas.palmer@jpmorgan.commedianorganicsalesgrowthof-0.4%Y/Ynextquarter,downfromtheJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCprior+0.3%and~120basispointsbelowtheStreet’s+0.8%.Wealsoaremeaningfullyreducingourforecastsforthenext12monthsandbeyond.Ourrevenueestimatesare

5、changingthemostforthefollowingcompanies.Fortheupcomingquarter,ournumbersdropthefarthestforGIS,HSY,andCPB.Forthenext12months,theydropthemostforGISandMDLZ.Streetrevenueforecastsacrosstheindustryarelikelytoohigh.Sincepeakingin2Q11,theUSpackagedfoodsector’sorganicgrowthratehasheaded

6、onadownwardpath.AndyettheStreetiscurrentlymodelingorganicgrowthtosuddenlyimprove.PerBloombergconsensus,infiveofthenextsixquarters,theaveragelarge-capfoodproducerisexpectedtogroworganicrevenuesatleast+1.2%,alevelthathasbeenreachedbythegrouponlyonceinthelastninequarters.Wehavenorea

7、sontobelievethefoodindustry’schallenges(lackofeffectiveinnovation,competitionfromprivatelabel,consolidationofcustomers,etal)aregoingtodissipatethisquickly.Andwedonotthinkmostoftheindustrywillsuddenlyspendagreatdealmoreonmarketing.EquityRatingsandPriceTargetsMktCapRatingPriceTarge

8、tCompanyTicker($mn)Price($)CurPrevCurPre