j.p. 摩根-美股-电信服务行业-北美有线、卫星与电信行业投资策略

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1、Completed19Dec201711:07PMESTDisseminated20Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch20December2017Cable,Satellite,andTelcoTheRiseofOTTandvMVPDs:Bracingfora"NewNormal"inVideoDistributionSincecrestingin2009around88%,legacylinearPayTVpenetrationofoccupi

2、edTelecomServices/Cable&householdshasdeterioratedsteadilywithrecentdeclinesmoreprecipitous.GivenSatellitetheaccelerationoflegacysubscriberdeclinesyear-to-dateto3.2%wenowPhilipCusick,CFAACestimatesubscriberdeclinesof~3%perannumthrough2025.Atthesametime

3、,(1-212)622-1444welookfortremendousgrowthamongvirtualMVPDplatformssuchasSlingTV,philip.cusick@jpmorgan.comDirecTVNow,andYouTubeTV–approximately19%CAGRfrom2017to2025BloombergJPMACUSICK–whosegrowingshareinlinearTVsubscriptionsisexpectedtonotquiteoff

4、setSebastianoCPettilossesonthetraditionallinearside.WebelievethattheviabilityofvMVPDswill(1-212)622-8529sebastiano.c.petti@jpmorgan.combetestedasISPsdrivebroadbandspeeds/pricinghighertore-capturesomeoftheRichardChoesavingsofbundle-shaving/cutting.Addi

5、tionally,thesuccessofnewentrants,(1-212)622-6708relativetoscaledlegacyprovidersinOTT/vMVPD,hingesontheabilitytoscalerichard.choe@jpmorgan.comaddressable/targetedadvertisinginordertorecouplimitedgrossmarginsonEudoraEricksonheadlinepackages.(1-212)622-5

6、623eudora.erickson@jpmorgan.comTraditionalsubdeclinesareacceleratingduetovirtualMVPDsubstitution.MediaDuring2017thelegacyPayTVecosystemhasseensubscriberlossesaccelerateACAlexiaS.Quadranitorecordlevels(estimated3.3m).Weascribetheaccelerationinsubdecli

7、nesto(1-212)622-1896fourpredominantfactors:1)higherprices;2)worseningrelativealexia.quadrani@jpmorgan.comexperience/UI;3)proliferationofvMVPDs;and4)ashrinkinglinearvideoBloombergJPMAQUADRANImarket.Giventhenewtrendlineyear-to-date,weforecast~3%annu

8、allegacyParrisJTaylorlinearPayTVsubscriberdeclinesthrough2025,anda–1%CAGRofalllinear(1-212)622-9252PayTVoverthattime.AsvMVPDecosystemmomentumbuildsandlegacyparris.j.taylor@jpmorgan.comPayTVheadwindspersist,weforecasta19%CAGRinvMVPDsubgrowthJul