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1、IntegratedOil/RefiningDeutscheBankMarketsResearchLatinAmericaIndustryDateNorthAmerica17October2017IntegratedOil/IndustrialsRefiningIndustryUpdateIntegratedOil3QUpstream:InflectionPointsRyanToddUpstreamPreview:E&Psmostlyunharmed,preferEOGandDVNResearchAnalystAlthoughasteadyst
2、reamofpost-hurricaneoperationsupdatesandpre-announcements(8ofthe17E&Psundercoveragehavepre-announced)has+1-212-250-8342certainlyremovedsomeofthedramaentering3Qresults,westillseeplentyofDavidFernandezopportunitiesforthegrouptoshowthatoperationsareon(orbackon?)trackResearch
3、Associatefollowinganoisy2Q,thatimplied4Qacceleration(6.2%sequentialgrowthvs.+1-212-250-31914.6%in3Q)isachievable,thatcurrentspacingassumptionsaresupportable,andtoaddresswaystodemonstrate"capitaldisciplined"growthin2018.WepreferJoeMcKayDVNandEOG.ResearchAssociate+1-212-250
4、-5717Focusoncapitaldiscipline(implicitgrowthreduction?)comesintofocusAlthoughweexpectfewtoprovideexplicitguidance,theearlyoutlookfor2018isCherylKniattlikelytobeasignificantareaoffocus,particularlygiven:a)thegrowinginvestorResearchAssociatedebate/pressureoncapitaldiscipline
5、/returnsvs.growth,andb)therallyincrude+1-212-250-4461price,whichis+20%sincelateJune.Acrossthelarge-capspace,weexpectabroadcommitmenttospendwithincashflow(withvariousexceptions),andToppickswouldexpectbudgetsatpresenttolargelyanticipatea$50-$55/bblworld.WeConchoResources(CXO
6、.N),USD133.27Buyseeannualized4Q17capitalbudgetsasrunning~4%inexcessofCFOattheDevonEnergy(DVN.N),USD35.85Buystripin2018(ex-EOG),withPXD/HES/QEP,asmostexposed.WealsolookforEOGResources(EOG.N),USD97.21Buyclarityonpotentialresponsetoahigherthanexpectedcrudeprice,includingSour
7、ce:DeutscheBankadditionaldrillingactivity(EOG),buyback(COP),de-levering(CLR)anddividendgrowth(MRO).4Q17trajectoryandtheimplicationfor2018ValuationandRisksCompaniesinourintegrated/large-capWithcompanyproductionhavingslightlyunderwhelmedthroughthefirstspacearevaluedoneithera
8、EV/DACFhalfoftheyear(asignificantfactorinimprovedcrudepricesentiment)andmultiple(CVX.N,XOM.N,COP.
