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1、IntegratedOil/RefiningDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateNorthAmerica7November2017IntegratedOil/IndustrialsRefiningRecommendationIntegratedOilChange3Q17ResultsRecapRyanToddE&Pstoetheline,whilerefiningshines.UpgradeDKtoBuyResearchAnalystWithE&Poperationslargelyinlineduring3Qresul
2、ts(3Qvolumes+1%vsDBe,capex-2%,4Qguide<1%),attentionfelloverwhelminglyonmanagement+1-212-250-8342commentaryoncapitaldiscipline,withtheindustrylargely“toeingtheline”soDavidFernandezfar.Amoderated2018activityrampsupportsanimprovedoutlookforcrudeinResearchAssociate2018,andalthougha$55/bb
3、l+worldwillclearlytestmanagementcommitment+1-212-250-3191tocurrentdiscipline,theoutlookappearsrelativelybrightforE&Ps.Strongerthanexpectedrefiningresults,coupledwithanimprovedmacrobackdropinto2018JoeMcKay(distillatemargins,widerBrent-WTIdiff)leadustoreviseour2018estimatesforResearchAss
4、ociatethegroup(EPS+44%,PTs+20%),andupgradeDKfromHoldtoBuy.+1-212-250-5717ValuationandRisksCherylKniattCompaniesinourintegrated/large-capspacearevaluedoneitheraEV/DACFResearchAssociatemultiple(CVX.N,XOM.N,COP.N,andOXY.NoronablendedNAV,EV/DACF+1-212-250-4461multiplemethodology.NAVsassu
5、me$60/bbl,$57/bbl,and$3.25/mcfforBrent,WTIandHenryHubpricingresp.PrimarydownsiderisksincludeadeclineinKeyChangesglobaloildemandandadecreaseintheunderlyingcommodity.UpsiderisksCompanyTargetPriceRatingincludeincreaseddemandandincreasedoperatorefficiency.CompaniesinourCVX.N116.00to-131.00
6、refiningcoveragearemostlyvaluedundera2018multiple-based(EV/EBITDA)COP.N54.00to65.00-SOTPvaluation.Upsiderisksincludewideningcrudediffs,andgasolineinventoryHES.N43.00to50.00-drawswhilekeydownsiderisksincludetepidgasolineanddistillatedemand.OXY.N67.00to72.00-XOM.N83.00to90.00-L48outlooku
7、nchanged(sofar),see~7%outspendin2018;RaisePT's~10%EOG.N101.00to-Muchofthedramaaround3QresultswasdiffusedbyastringofHarveyrelated120.00productionupdatesinlateSeptember(volumes/operatingcostsmostlyinline,APA.N49.00to45.00-capexbeat~2%).Nevertheless,anincreasinglymorestablecommodityoutlo
8、okAPC.N62.00
